British intelligence experts see Russia in a dilemma: A breakthrough by Ukrainian forces near Zaporizhia could affect supplies for Russian troops.
British military experts see the strengthening of Russian defense positions in Ukraine as indications that the commanders fear Ukrainian offensives. In the past few weeks, Russia has expanded its defense positions in the Zaporizhia region in the south of the country, according to the British Defense Ministry’s daily briefing.
“The way Russia has been working to improve its defenses suggests that commanders are very likely preoccupied with the possibility of large-scale Ukrainian offensives – either in the northern Luhansk region or in Zaporizhia.”
According to the experts, a breakthrough by Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhia region could jeopardize the functionality of the Russian “land bridge”, which connects the Russian region of Rostov with Crimea. Important rail and road connections and thus the supply of Russian troops in the region are in danger as a result. A Ukrainian success in Luhansk would further undermine Russia’s declared war goal of “liberating” eastern Ukraine’s Donbass region.
“Deciding which of these threats to prioritize is probably one of the key dilemmas facing Russian operational planners,” the intelligence experts wrote on Twitter.
The British Ministry of Defense has been publishing daily information on the course of the war since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine at the end of February, citing intelligence information. In doing so, the British government wants to both counter the Russian portrayal and keep allies in line. Moscow accuses London of a disinformation campaign.
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