After the commitment to supply main battle tanks, a debate about Western-style fighter jets is picking up speed – and some allies are receptive to it. Why?
Is after the battle tank before the fighter jet? Ukraine, after pledging to supply main battle tanks from countries like the US and Germany, has renewed its demand to also be equipped with Western-style fighter jets – and some allies are at least receptive to discussing it.
Shortly after the start of the Russian war of aggression, the delivery of fighter jets was still categorically ruled out. In March of last year, the US government warned of a “significant Russian reaction,” as Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at the time. The topic was off the table for the time being.
Now they want to “discuss the issue from Kyiv carefully,” said Jon Finer, Deputy National Security Advisor to US President Joe Biden, on Thursday. “We have not ruled out or promised any particular systems in advance.” Support will be tailored to what Ukraine needs.
France also wants to “leave all doors open”, as the chairman of the defense committee, Thomas Gassilloud, was quoted as saying. Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra said there were “no taboos” on military support. His country is “open” to any inquiries. In Poland one would be to a delivery of combat aircraft.
However, the cautious statements do not mean that the supporter countries are actually considering the delivery of combat aircraft to Ukraine – but neither does an explicit rejection. There could be several considerations behind this.
The Red Lines
In the course of the war, the red lines in military aid have shifted several times – and could do so again. Washington has signaled to Kyiv that aircraft deliveries are “a no-go for now,” citing a diplomat from northern Europe, who added, “There’s a red line — but last summer we had a red line on the himars[multiplerocketlaunchers)andthatmovedThenitwasbattletanksandthatmoved”
Last but not least, Kyiv hopes that there will at least be some movement in the debate. “The next big hurdle will be fighter jets,” Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, told the news agency. “If we can get them (modern western fighter jets) it will mean immense advantage on the battlefield.”
That’s a belief shared by military strategists like Justin Bronk. However, the researcher at the RUSI think tank in London warns that Western combat aircraft are also at high risk from Russian surface-to-air missiles and require logistics, personnel and training. “The question is, should this be a priority now or should it wait?”
The incremental increase in Ukraine’s combat capability — or re-evaluation of red lines — follows a strategy described by the as “boiling the frog.”
The article outlines Joe Biden’s approach — first, not supplying any weapons that Ukraine could use to attack Russia, and second, gradually arming the Ukrainian army so that Russian President Putin has to ask himself every time whether he considers the threat posed by the increased Ukrainian clout to be so great that he would therefore seek direct confrontation with the West and expand the war.
“US officials once called this process ‘boiling the frog,’ in reference to the story of a frog that jumps out of the pot as soon as you put it in boiling water, but not if the water is heated slowly.”
The supply of main battle tanks has raised the temperature, . The delivery of fighter jets would, too, if they again represented a new quality of arms assistance. And it is to be expected that such a debate would be even more heated than in the .
Germany has already ruled out such deliveries. “I made it clear very early on that it’s not about combat aircraft and I’m doing the same here,” said Chancellor Scholz. He and US President Biden made that clear in the discussion about no-fly zones over Ukraine that arose at the beginning of the war. “We will not do that,” he said at the time. “Nothing has changed in this attitude and nothing will change.”
The signal to Moscow
It remains to be seen whether a consensus could be reached to also equip Ukraine with western combat aircraft. The apparently desired fourth-generation jets, such as the USA’s F-16, might not be an option at first because of the organizational hurdles. Instead, however, Ukraine could receive Soviet-designed aircraft, similar to the early tank deliveries. Shortly after the beginning of the war, Poland failed with that attempt to deliver MiG-26 jets.
The fact that some western supporter countries are at least letting the public debate on the deliveries of fighter jets continue – although the tank decision was only made – could therefore have another reason.
On the one hand, the delivery of the main battle tanks should enable Ukraine to defend itself against the Russian invaders, on the other hand, the Western allies want to send a signal to Moscow that military support for the country will not run dry – and that they will stand by Kyiv as long as it is is necessary.
“The message, carefully weighed, carefully balanced with what we’ve been doing for the last few months and are doing again now, is that Putin (the Russian President) cannot count on support for the Ukraine is slowing down,” said Chancellor Scholz in reference to the delivery of the Leopard main battle tank.
US President Biden made a similar statement. “The tanks are not an offensive threat to Russia, there is no threat of an offensive on Russian territory. If Russian troops retreat to Russia, where they belong, then this war would be over today.”
In other words, military aid to Ukraine is not being slacked off – if that gets too hot for Putin, he can withdraw Russian troops at any time. The fact that the mere option of fighter jets for Ukraine is not publicly dismissed by some supporter countries could therefore be calculated – the warmonger from the Kremlin should follow the statements carefully.
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Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
