A white something hovers high above the USA, which causes frowns not only in the Pentagon. If it really is a spy balloon from China, why does the superpower rely on such “old-fashioned” methods?
Editor’s Note: This text has been updated to reflect current information.
A white something that hovers high above the northwest of the US state of Montana causes a lot of frowns not only in the USA. The supposed espionage balloon could trigger a genuine foreign policy scandal. The Pentagon is convinced that the flying object comes from China – which Beijing finally admitted after much hesitation. According to Chinese information, however, it is not a spy balloon, but a research balloon.
The balloon flies “at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and poses no military or physical threat to people on the ground,” the US side said. However, because falling debris poses a danger to people on the ground, shooting it down is currently too dangerous; Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin advised President Joe Biden against such a measure.
However, action was taken immediately “to prevent the collection of sensitive information”. F-22 fighter jets took off to observe the balloon. Air traffic in Montana’s largest city, Billings, has been temporarily suspended.
However, the US Department of Defense assumes that the balloon has only “limited additional use for reconnaissance work”. After all, satellite images should reveal much more to Beijing. There have been similar incidents in the past, but never over such a long period of time. The Wall Street Journal wrote that it was one of the most aggressive maneuvers by the Chinese secret services in years.
An overview of what we know so far – and what not.
Why did the balloon pop up right here?
The object started in China, passed the Aleutian chain of islands near Alaska and then flew over northwest Canada, US media reports. Canadian intelligence services are working with American partners and are on the lookout for a “possible second incident,” a brief statement said
The current flight path has been taking the balloon over Montana and “a number of sensitive locations” since Wednesday, according to the Department of Defense. What is meant is probably, among other things, a military base in the north of the sparsely populated state. Malmstrom Air Force Base is one of three air force bases storing ICBMs armed with nuclear warheads. Around 150 Minuteman III nuclear missiles are said to be stationed here alone.
What is a spy balloon?
A spy balloon is surveillance technology (such as cameras or radars) that is suspended under an inflatable umbrella and scouts a specific, usually militarily sensitive, area. The unpowered flying objects usually fly at an altitude of between 24,000 and 37,000 meters, far above civil air traffic.
Spy balloons were used in the US Civil War in the 1860s. At that time, soldiers from the Union States had wanted to spy on the Confederates with binoculars. They sent signals back using Morse code or with a “piece of paper tied to a rock,” John Blaxland, a professor of international security and intelligence studies at the Australian National University, told the British Guardian. The modern, unmanned versions were booming during the Cold War. At the time, the US deployed hundreds of them, Peter Layton, a staffer at the Griffith Asia Institute in Australia, told US news channel CNN.
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Why a balloon at all and not a satellite?
But why should a military superpower like China still rely on such supposedly antiquated methods at all? In fact, satellites have been “the measure of all things” over the past few decades, says Blaxland. However, these are no longer untouchable – modern lasers and kinetic weapons always pose a threat.
Balloons, on the other hand, are much more difficult to spot than you might think. “They have a very low signature and little to no emission, making them difficult to detect with traditional situational awareness or surveillance technologies,” military expert Blake Herzinger told CNN.
Plus, balloons have another, more mundane benefit: they’re cheap, and they’re only getting cheaper thanks to smaller and lighter spy gear. Sending a satellite into orbit, on the other hand, still costs millions upon millions of dollars.
In addition, balloons can observe a larger area over a longer period of time. Not only do they move much slower than their pompous relatives. In contrast to satellites, balloons can be controlled (to a limited extent) by on-board computers that use wind currents. Their comparatively low flight altitude should also be more of an advantage than a disadvantage. “They could be collecting signal data, in other words, they’re looking at our cell phone traffic and our radio traffic,” Cedric Leighton, a former US Air Force colonel, told the US broadcaster. Satellites are simply too far away to intercept such data.
Such balloons are likely to be used far more frequently in the future. This is also due to the fact that it is now becoming very cramped in near-Earth space. Like the magazine, the US military is now investing heavily in balloons.
What does China say about this?
From China it was initially only said that the allegations were being investigated, but warned against premature speculation. “We collect and check the facts,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told press representatives in Beijing. “We hope that both sides will treat the matter with a cool head.” It is not helpful to speculate or hype the matter until it is clear what happened.
It was only in the afternoon that Beijing, after much hesitation, admitted that it was a Chinese flying object – but that it was only used for scientific purposes. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry acknowledged a certain border crossing. It was a “civilian” Chinese airship for research purposes, primarily of a meteorological nature, which “deviated far from its planned course” due to its limited ability to steer itself due to strong westerly winds. A ministry spokesman added, “China regrets the unexpected entry into US airspace due to force majeure.”
What could Beijing be aiming for if it were a spy balloon?
If the balloon had actually been used for espionage, it would have already broken one crucial rule: it was discovered. However, Beijing should have expected it, experts are sure. After all, the US monitors its airspace meticulously.
It is possible that one wanted to show Washington how mature Chinese military technology has become. In that case, finding the balloon would be part of the plan. Another explanation: the whole thing is an accident. Beijing may just have lost control of the balloon.
How is US politics reacting?
“China’s flagrant disregard for US sovereignty is a destabilizing measure that needs to be addressed,” , the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives. Other conservatives were also critical and called on the Biden administration to act immediately.
In fact, the timing for such an incident is far from ideal and is likely to exacerbate tensions between the two superpowers. Anthony Blinken was actually expected in Beijing on Sunday – it was to be the first visit by a US Secretary of State to China in around six years. The aim was to calm the waves in the enormously cooled relationship between the two superpowers. But that is apparently not the case: Blinken has canceled the trip, as reported by US media, citing government circles.
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Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
