Concern about China’s balloon in the US: How strong is the People’s Republic really?

Perhaps the situation is as bloated as its trigger. But that’s no longer the point, the proverbial child fell into the well, or rather into the Atlantic. The US shot down the alleged spy balloon from China off the east coast. It is unlikely that this will finally be the last straw. The only question is how many such incidents the tense relationship can tolerate before a serious shooting occurs.

For days, the object hovered over the country, crossing several states and apparently flying over “sensitive” military bases where, according to media reports, nuclear weapons are also stored. But, as the Pentagon itself said on Friday, the balloon was not a threat. Neither for people, nor for state secrets.

Nevertheless, the white thing, about three bus lengths in size, triggered a real diplomatic crisis and thus revealed how great the leap of faith is that Beijing and Washington are now admitting to each other.

The question in the current stern title: How strong is China really?

Even after the US government finally used force to take the research balloon out of the sky, which the Chinese saw as merely straying, people in the Far East remained surprisingly calm. Beijing called the shooting down an “overreaction” and expressed “strong dissatisfaction” with the use of force. Where does the prudence come from? One possible answer: the balloon dilemma is inconvenient for Beijing, probably far more inconvenient than for the United States.

So while the whole world is now debating whether a balloon will start a new wave of escalation, he asks himself star in the current title: How strong is China really?

After almost three years of a zero-Covid policy that ultimately failed, including subsequent massive protests, the party leadership is struggling to get the ailing economy going again – with moderate success. Not only is economic growth, which is almost sacred to the party leadership, shrinking, but so is the population. China’s population will have halved by 2100. At the same time, the People’s Republic is graying – nowhere else is the population aging at such a pace. Beijing has also maneuvered itself into an uncomfortable corner in terms of foreign policy. The “rock-solid” friendship with Russia has proven to be a far more defamatory, low-profit pact with an isolated warmonger.

One thing is certain: after 40 years of record growth, the People’s Republic is at a turning point: downwards. The dream of becoming a world power could burst. This has consequences for the regime – and our prosperity.