Russian War of Aggression: ISW: Russia could use prisoners as “cannon fodder”.

Analysts at the Institute for War Studies (ISW) believe it is possible that the Russian Defense Ministry is recruiting prisoners to be used as “cannon fodder” in the war of aggression against Ukraine. A recruitment of convicts is an indication that the Kremlin could be planning so-called “human waves”, the ISW writes on Tuesday (local time) with reference to corresponding reports.

This refers to a tactic in which a large number of soldiers – often with little training – are used for an attack. Both the Ukrainian secret service and the US broadcaster CNN had previously reported that the Russian Defense Ministry was recruiting prisoners.

According to the US analysts, an integration of the convicts into the troops of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) also shows that the Russian military does not want to restructure its conventional units for the convicts. One might want to avoid further weakening the units’ morale by the prisoners.

Institute: Kiev should stick to Bakhmut’s defense

Despite the difficult situation in Bakhmut, the ISW believes Kiev’s strategy of continuing to defend the city in eastern Ukraine, which has been fought over for months, to be correct. “The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut has forced the Kremlin to exhaust much of the Wagner group as a force,” the US think tank argues further in its report.

In addition, Russia must deploy high-quality air forces in order to make progress. The resulting weakening of the Russian side favored the conditions for a Ukrainian counter-offensive, according to the ISW. A defense of Bachmut and the preparation of a counter-offensive are therefore not mutually exclusive.

Western observers had previously questioned Kiev’s decision to continue with Bakhmut. According to estimates from US government circles, it might make more sense to focus on a counter-offensive in the spring. A Russian conquest of Bakhmut would bring about “no significant strategic turnaround on the battlefield,” the Washington Post (Monday) quoted a high-ranking government official as saying. “Russia will try to portray it as such, but it is a spot on the map for which they have shed an extraordinary amount of blood and resources.”

London: Moscow is well aware of military weakness

According to British secret services, the Russian leadership is presumably aware of the increasing armament problems. This is well aware that the production of the Russian armaments industry is developing into a decisive weakness, according to the daily short report of the British Ministry of Defense on Wednesday. In addition, this Achilles heel is burdened by strategic misjudgments during the invasion of Ukraine. Russian production is likely to fall short of leadership’s expectations for Ukraine war supplies and long-term goals.

The British emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly called on the arms industry to provide better support for the “special military operation” by which the invasion of Russia is known. Most recently, in a televised meeting, he sharply criticized Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, who is responsible for the arms industry. In addition, the Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, called for increased production of tanks.