The controversy over France’s pension reform is heating up tempers. The main actors: left, government and Macron. Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists only seem to play a supporting role. But that counts. In the long run?
No participation in the pension demos, no leading role in the parliamentary debate, but plus points in the polls: Marine Le Pen and her right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National are benefiting from the months-long dispute over pension reform in France and the rampant dissatisfaction in the country, which is today with new strikes and protests are once again expressed. How did they do it, and what does that mean for the next elections?
A brief look back: French President Emmanuel Macron and the central government want to prevent an impending hole in the pension fund with the pension reform. To this end, they want to gradually raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. The payment period for a full pension should increase more quickly. The reform, which has been the subject of protests for months, has now been approved. Tomorrow the Constitutional Council will decide on their constitutionality.
Macron is losing voters
Macron has brought plenty of resentment over pension reform. According to an evaluation of various polls by the Sunday newspaper “Journal du Dimanche”, he has been at the lowest point in his popularity since he was re-elected president almost a year ago. Political scientist Antoine Bristielle of the Fondation Jean-Jaurès observes that his camp is losing important groups of voters and is only remaining stable among civil servants and pensioners.
The right-wing national RN, on the other hand, is now seven percentage points above its result in the parliamentary elections in June in a survey by the renowned Ifop Institute. According to several polls, Le Pen is currently emerging as the winner, at least in the first round of the presidential election. Bristielle sees her party as a “big winner”. They are expanding their support – “so much that they are more and more like a ruling party”.
lost favor with the working class
There is no question that the government and Macron have made themselves unpopular with the reform, their sometimes unfortunate and sometimes stubborn communication and their behavior in parliament, which is perceived as aggressive. But the left-leaning daily Liberation is convinced: “Emmanuel Macron is not the only person responsible for the good health of the RN. The left is clearly to blame.” Because they have lost favor with the working class. And although the left was omnipresent in the pension debate and actively participated in the protests, it didn’t really score points. According to Bristielle, the population complains that it is too aggressive and blockades.
Group leader Le Pen has dictated a different course to her right-wing nationalists. The motto is to appear as serious and state-supporting as possible and to avoid aggressive attacks. It is the continuation of their course of “deviling” the party, which in recent years has made them electable right down to the bourgeois middle class. In concrete terms, this means that the deputies have shone more through restraint. “Libération” recently dubbed them “Kings of Silence”. But Le Pen goes too far. The fact that not much has been done in the pension dispute is a lie, she said on BFMTV. “I won’t allow you to say that!”
Right-wing nationalists as beneficiaries
What is certain, however, is that Le Pen and her right-wing nationalists were the beneficiaries of the duel between the government and the left. According to “Libération”, the focus on the two opponents even overlooked some mistakes made by the right-wing nationalists in parliament. And because they are not actively involved in the protests, the right-wing nationalists can easily distance themselves from violent riots there. “We will not destroy cars (…) but tell the French that they can make this reform a bad memory by voting for the RN,” said Le Pen.
But will it really come to this? The presidential elections in France are not due until 2027. The European elections are next year, but can the debate on pensions within France shape them? For Bristielle, the answer is clear. “As soon as a major crisis shakes the country and election dynamics can be observed at this point in time, they persist or even intensify and show up at the ballot box in the coming elections.” For example, the yellow vest crisis would have affected the 2019 European elections. “While electoral volatility is becoming a growing reality in our country, it is these periods of great politicization that will set the electoral dynamics in motion for years to come.”
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
