World Climate Summit COP26: Failure forbidden – an unprecedented pressure

The world climate summit in Glasgow, COP26 for short, starts on Sunday, the 26th already. But probably never before have people around the globe been directed with such urgency to the experts and heads of state who will struggle for agreements and resolutions for two weeks. Decisions that are meant to be nothing less than to save the world from a climate collapse. Extreme weather events have accumulated worldwide in recent years – also on our doorstep: hot summer,, the flood of unprecedented proportions in the Ahr valley,. Disasters make the climate crisis increasingly tangible, and enormous aid funds have to be made available. Even the last ones realize: something has to be done in order to be able to handle the consequences of global climate change. The world needs solutions.

But can the conference do that? Can another summit meet the enormous expectations? Glasgow, if you will, is like the Paris follow-up conference. The 1.5-degree target agreed six years ago in the climate agreement – what is meant is a limitation of global warming by this value compared to pre-industrial times – is now almost common knowledge. No election campaign, no talk show, no climate protest in which the 1.5 degree target is not mentioned as a guideline for measures in the fight against the climate crisis. What the states promised at the time in Paris is being put to the test in Glasgow. It should and must now be readjusted.

Paris resolutions must be translated into concrete measures

“What needs to happen now is make sure that [Pariser] Agreement is also implemented, “says climatologist Friederike Otto from Oxford University stern/ RTL podcast “important today”. The global goals set out in the Paris Agreement and the national goals set by the most important states – i.e. net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 – should now really be translated into concrete implementation in the nation states, according to the co-founder of mapping research extreme weather events can be traced back specifically to climate change.

However: The implementation of resolutions is one thing, the acceptance of the resulting consequences in everyday life is another. Current example: At the moment, the high fuel and heating oil prices in this country are widely causing annoyance. The new, dynamic CO2 tax, which was introduced to reduce emissions of harmful greenhouse gases through increasing costs, also contributes to this. That already exceeds the wallet of many people who say they are dependent on the car. The rejection of this specific climate protection measure is growing promptly – despite the majority approval of more climate protection.

Large majorities believe that the rise in the price of electricity and gas (84 percent of those surveyed), rising gasoline prices (78 percent) and more expensive animal-based foods (57 percent) are not the right way to counter the climate crisis. Such issues are politically explosive for governments, and that has an impact on climate decisions. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, however, is essential if one wants to curb the global warming.

“There is progress, but nowhere near enough”

Despite all the problems, it cannot be said that nothing has happened so far. “The world has tilted the climate emissions curve,” says Niklas Höhne from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) in the “New York Times”. The CAT is a research group that regularly analyzes the climate and energy measures that countries have implemented around the world. From this they calculate how strong the global temperature rise will be.

The results so far give cause for hope as well as for concern. In the year before the Paris Agreement, according to the CAT findings, the world was on the way to warming by 3.6 to 4.2 degrees Celsius. Values ​​for which the consequences of climate change are generally not considered to be controllable. Since Paris, the temperature curve – not least due to the expansion of clean energy sources – has been reduced to currently 2.7 to 3.1 degrees. Clear progress, but “just not enough,” says Niklas Höhne, because even with these values, barely manageable consequences are to be expected.

This is where the great challenge for the Glasgow summit becomes clear, because that is the current status. If you add to the promises made by many countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions even faster than before, the world would be 2.1 to 2, according to CAT calculations. Land 4 degrees. But these promises mostly only existed on paper. In order to achieve the 1.5 degree target, at which the consequences of global warming are considered to be more or less controllable, much more drastic measures than before are required. Because the 1.5 degrees have so far been slightly to significantly missed even with the most optimistic information. The critical limit is a warming of 2.0 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. In addition, it is said that the consequences can hardly be estimated. The warming is currently 1.1 degrees – and even now there are a number of “sinking islands” that can no longer be saved: Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Maldives and others.

Industrialized nations have to help poorer countries with sums of billions

The particularly endangered island states, like all poorer countries in the world, are dependent on the help of the industrialized countries for climate protection. Every year from 2020 to 2025, 100 billion dollars (about 86 billion euros) should be made available by the richest countries. So far, nothing more than a promise. But the German State Secretary for the Environment, Jochen Flasbarth, is certain: “We will not reach this goal yet in 2022. But in 2023 we will achieve or even exceed this goal,” said Flasbarth during an online press conference last Monday. The background to the goal is that poorer countries, which themselves contribute the least to man-made climate change, are most affected by it. The money should flow both into adaptation measures and into a climate-friendly restructuring of the economy.

Climate finance from richer countries is also seen as an important basis for the success of the negotiations at the Glasgow Summit. “Understandably, there was a lot of frustration in developing countries,” said British President-elect of the summit, Alok Sharma, of the goals that have not yet been achieved. The task now is to restore confidence and make progress. But there are doubts: “The plan is primarily the attempt by the rich countries to cushion the disappointment of the poorer countries about the promise not kept – in order to contribute to a summit that is successful from the perspective of the rich countries”, criticizes the financial expert Jan Kowalzig of Oxfam Germany . There were no specific commitments that the failures would be made up later and that the funds for adaptation to climate change would be increased.

Success won’t feel like sensation

Secure the financing of climate protection in the poorer countries; Gaining people’s trust that they can cope with and pay for their everyday lives with climate measures; And in all of this, decide on and implement concrete steps that have to be much sharper than before in order to actually be able to limit global warming to a tolerable level between 1.5 and 2.0 degrees: big tasks for a conference at which different interests usually have to be negotiated in tough struggles in order to find a solution. Accordingly, should the Glasgow Summit be a success – and it seems doomed to do so – the good news will hardly feel like a sensation right away. “It’s not a very sexy topic,” says climatologist Friederike Otto. “If things go well, then we will probably not notice it in big headlines, but in actually falling emissions in the next few years. Because that is the only thing that really counts as a measure.” Will it actually come to that? Friederike Otto: “I cannot predict that.”

Sources:; ; ; ; ; ; DPA news agency.