To analyse
Victory in Virginia, surprisingly good result in New Jersey: two gubernatorial elections send Republicans into euphoria. Is Donald Trump coming back? The two candidates, however, did not represent Trumpism in its purest form.
“It will be a close race, but I think we will win,” said US President Joe Biden on Tuesday afternoon. At the time, nothing had been decided, but it was actually foreseeable that his optimism was more of a symbolic nature. Because although the Democratic candidate, Biden’s husband, had been in the polls for a long time in the gubernatorial election in Virginia, he was overtaken shortly before the end by Republican Glenn Youngkin – both in the polls and in the ballot box. He beat the favorite with just 2.7 percentage points. But the election in the east coast state was only one of several that day; a year after the presidential election, the first important mood test for Biden’s politics was due. He could have turned out more pleasantly.
Surprise success in New Jersey
While Virginia often and always likes to vote for the other party than the one currently sitting in the White House, New Jersey has recently been firmly in the hands of the Democrats. Here, too, a new governor was sought, and the Democratic candidate and incumbent Phil Murphy was considered a sure winner. But the outcome came as a surprise, even if the result is still “too close to call”, as the Americans say: too narrow to declare a winner. At the last count, Republican Jack Ciattarelli was even ahead. The mere fact that there is this lead, if only a very thin one, is another blow to the neck for the Democrats, not just for those in Washington.
The Republicans, on the other hand, are likely to be rubbing their hands together. In a year there will be nationwide midterm elections in which parts of the US Congress will be re-elected. The Democrats still have a majority in the two chambers of parliament, but it is already small – and with the latest results behind them, it has become more likely that the Conservatives will at least be able to recapture the Senate – and thus be able to do just about anything to block what the White House plans and wants. Joe Biden would be something like the often quoted “lame duck” even at half-time.
These are all just conservative, wet dreams, but for the Trump supporters among the Republicans, i.e. the majority, the victory in Virginia is already the starting signal for the ex-president’s comeback. It’s not that the ex was ever really gone after being voted out. But it makes a difference whether a former head of state contaminates the country with conspiracy theories as a political sniper, and whether he will do so as a more or less official candidate for the Republicans. One thing is certain: Trump is pulling. As the enthusiastically supported and successful governor candidate Youngkin has felt. In the election campaign, he had always tried to keep a distance from the ex-president.
Glenn Youngkins successful balancing act
“Youngkin has to find the difficult balance of giving the Trump-loving base enough food, but not so much that the Trump-hating suburbanites feel repulsed,” the station said before the election. Apparently he succeeded in this balancing act. The New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli had also ridden a rolling course. Initially elected as a candidate for Trump’s counter-draft, he quickly changed camp when his election campaign threatened to run out of steam. Only towards the end did Ciattarelli keep his distance again. For example, honoring the late ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell and contradicting Trump by name.
The fact that the Conservatives can count these November votes as a success, however, has to do with the disagreement of the ruling Democrats. There the left is fighting with the right wing, blocking Biden’s gigantic, trillion-dollar reforms. With such a ruling party, there is no longer any need for an opposition. Whether the current upswing can actually carry the Republicans, i.e. Donald Trump, back into the White House is still uncertain. Because the gubernatorial elections and the polls also show that neither he as a person nor his unruly right-wing populism can win a majority in the USA. At least not in its purest form and not now, in November 2021.
Sources: Jack Ciattarelli on Twitter,, “”,,,,, DPA
Source From: Stern
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