In the United States, voters have made decisions about replacing key governor and mayor posts – and both Democrats and Republicans can learn from this.
It was an exciting Tuesday election in the United States, as the results are a possible source of information for next year’s midterm elections, which will determine which party controls Congress: in the US states of Virginia and New Jersey, voters have a new governor and elected a mayor in New York.
The Democratic Party of US President Joe Biden suffered a serious setback: In Virginia, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin narrowly defeated the Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who was supported by Biden, and thus recaptured the post of governor from the Democrats. Youngkin was supported in the election campaign by ex-President Donald Trump – even if he publicly distanced himself from him and focused on moderate voters.
In New Jersey, the Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy and his Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli were forecast to be so close on Wednesday afternoon (CET) that the winner has not yet been determined. In New York, Democrat Eric Adams won the mayoral election clearly against Republican Curtis Sliwa.
Five important insights can be gained from the voting:
Virginia confirms Democrats’ worst fears
Democrats fear that they will be heading for a defeat like 2010 in next year’s midterm elections and that they will not be able to use the specter of former President Donald Trump to prevent this. Those fears were compounded by Youngkin’s victory in Virginia, where Biden won the presidential election a year ago by 10 percentage points. “If the Democrats fail to generate more enthusiasm than their gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe, they will likely be swept out of Congress,”.
In Virginia, governors have a limited term and elections take place in odd years, “which makes them the most important gauge of voter sentiment ahead of the mid-term elections,” the AP writes. “Usually this is a warning to the party in power in Washington, and this year was no different.”
The Democrats are only five votes ahead in the House of Representatives and one vote ahead in the Senate. In the past, too, the ruling party almost always lost seats in Congress in mid-term elections. But, according to the AP, “if 2022 nationally turns out to be similar to 2021 in Virginia, Democrats will lose a lot more than usual.”
Youngkin shows the Republicans the way
Youngkin was only looking to get so close to Trump that he could win the Republican primary and take over their base. Otherwise, he stepped away from the ex-president and preferred to take up economic issues that had emerged during Biden’s presidency. Education was also an important issue for Youngkin. His message, which focused on actions he would take in the areas of crime, business and education, could also work across the country, a Republican party strategist told the US broadcaster CNN. Especially if Biden continues to face a weak economy.
A decisive question in this context for the Republicans is likely to be whether candidates who, following Youngkin’s model, present themselves as their own “brand” independent of Trump, can survive in the primaries against embittered Trump allies.
Anti-Trump Democratic campaign is too little
McAuliffe tried everything in Virginia to connect Youngkin with Trump – and failed. His key message towards the end of the campaign was that the same voters who rejected Trump in 2020 should now do the same with Youngkin. The results would have made it clear to Democrats across the country that the Republican president is no longer the bogeyman he once was, commented on the vote in Virginia.
The Democrats apparently got the message: “There is no question that McAuliffe relied too much on Trump because there was nothing else. That was a mistake,” a senior party official told CNN. “Using Trump is fine. But relying on Trump only when there is nothing else is not a good strategy.”
McAuliffe’s defeat is forcing the Democrats to decide other ways to win and build their base for the upcoming election.
Liberal electoral laws do no harm to Republicans
The Democrats have controlled all parts of the Virginia’s government since 2019 and have since gradually liberalized the state’s electoral laws. They made postal voting possible for everyone and established a 45-day early voting window, one of the longest in the country, AP reports. This year, an electoral law was also passed, which makes it easier to sue against disabilities in exercising the right to vote.
Trump had sharply attacked efforts to expand suffrage during the pandemic in 2020 and has been spreading the lie of electoral fraud since his defeat. The Republican-controlled states have since tightened their electoral laws, shortening early voting times, restricting postal voting, and arguing that electoral liberalization would encourage fraud and help Democrats.
According to the AP, the latter claim contradicts several studies which have shown that postal voting does not favor either political party. Now, the Virginia election is yet another example of how liberal electoral laws don’t harm conservatives.
The Democrats should not over-interpret the results
There are still twelve months until the all-important election day on November 8, 2022. While Tuesday’s results do give some clues as to what might happen, they’re just clues, as AP points out.
The biggest negative factors for the Democrats are currently the ongoing corona pandemic, the problems with the supply chains that have driven up prices, and Biden’s difficulties in pushing through two key projects of his tenure in Congress: a trillion-dollar infrastructure package and a trillion-dollar social security package. and climate package.
The corona situation and delivery problems could improve in the next twelve months, which could strengthen the incumbent party – but both could also worsen.
In terms of investment projects, it is not unlikely that Biden’s packages will become a reality after a few changes. And most Wall Street forecasts predict robust economic growth over the next year, which could also strengthen the ruling party.
The results of election Tuesday should be a warning to Democrats, but much can still happen in the next year. And it probably will.
Sources: ,
Source From: Stern
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
