Ukraine podcast: Russia has given up some targets in eastern Ukraine

According to security expert Christian Mölling, Russia is giving up part of its original war goals in eastern Ukraine. On Friday in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation”, Mölling blamed Russian forces for the destruction of the Kachowka dam and the subsequent floods. “Don’t do that if you have big plans for the region,” said the research director of the German Society for Foreign Relations, referring to the areas claimed and occupied by Russia, which are now under water.

“The reality is that Russia is saying very clearly: we are not interested in this area and the people who live there.” For him, this leads to the following conclusion: “Russia has given up this part of Ukraine. In the sense of: they won’t get it back. That was signed at the latest when the dam was blown up or unintentionally blown up, because this made this area completely inhospitable .”

For Mölling, the development shows that Russia no longer has any opportunities to increase its military efforts. “The use of non-military measures such as blowing up a dam or shooting at rescue workers shows that there is nothing left militarily to escalate,” he explained. Of course, Russia can still fight and is doing it. But: “The ability to determine the fate and fate on the battlefield to an excessive extent does not seem to be given at the present time.”

This also has consequences for the internal stability of Putin’s regime. “Of course, the pressure in the boiler increases – both on site and in the Kremlin,” said Mölling. People wondered what would happen if Putin lost power because of military failures. And above all: “If he has to go, what will happen to me.” According to his impression, the relevant forces were preparing for a very rough time with hard struggles for distribution and power within Russia. “The war is coming home, in a different form,” he said.

Mölling: The collapse of the dam has hardly any impact on the course of the war in Ukraine

Regarding the situation in the flooded areas of Ukraine, Mölling pointed out that the risk of epidemics was high and mines were floating uncontrolled in the water. This also has military consequences. “These are conditions under which you must now consider: how interesting is that from a military point of view?” However, he does not expect the dam rupture to have any decisive influence on the course of the war. “For Ukraine it doesn’t mean that you have to stop the offensive because you had several plans in your pocket from the start,” he said.

Crossing the huge Dnipro River was probably not the first option anyway. Mölling was convinced that the dam breach was caused by explosions inside the building. Seismographic recordings showed that there had been a detonation. “It happened from within,” said the expert. The damage to the Russian-controlled dam cannot be explained by external shelling by the Ukrainian army. It is also unthinkable that a Ukrainian commando company is behind the crime.

“In order to blast such a big hole, they would have had to be there for a very long time,” said Mölling. You can’t penetrate the facility like in a James Bond film and attach two limpet mines. That doesn’t work. Russia, on the other hand, had “a plausible motive, the opportunity and the means.” However, it seemed conceivable to him that the dam was to be blown up later and that something had gone wrong when the explosives were being brought in.