Sea dispute between Türkiye and Cyprus: why a solution to the island conflict is so difficult

A few weeks ago, Cyprus’ Deputy Minister of State for Maritime Affairs, Marina Chatzimanoli, complained about the tightening of the Turkish embargo against Cypriot ships. The law that has existed since 1987, according to which ships flying the Cypriot flag are not allowed to dock at ports in neighboring Turkey, was recently extended to ships under Cypriot management.

Moritz Rau, political scientist and former scientist at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin with a research focus on Greece, Turkey and Cyprus, explained to the star the background to the maritime dispute: “The conflict over international maritime law revolves primarily around the natural gas deposits discovered off the island of Cyprus in the 2010s.” The point of contention is different opinions about the course of the sea borders or the maritime economic zones and thus about the access and marketing rights of the gas fields. Because a promotion of natural gas in the Mediterranean promises a profit in the billions.

“Turkey does not recognize the exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Cyprus and is making its own economic claims to part of this zone. In addition, it sees itself as a protective power for the Turkish Cypriots, who it sees as disadvantaged,” Rau continues.

Türkiye and Cyprus in decades-long dispute

The conflict is overshadowed by the so-called Cyprus question, which has remained unresolved for decades. After a military intervention by Turkey in 1974 and the subsequent occupation of about a third of the island as a result of a Greek coup, Cyprus was split; the northern part is now occupied by Turkey, while the southern part of the Republic of Cyprus is Greek. In between there is a buffer zone, the so-called Green Line, which is monitored by United Nations (UN) peacekeepers. Talks about reunification with the occupied northern part have been progressing without progress since 2017. The whole of Cyprus has been a member of the EU since 2004, although EU law is only applied in the southern part. The “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”, proclaimed unilaterally in 1983, is internationally recognized only by Turkey.

Marian Wendt, administrative lawyer and head of the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation’s foreign office for Greece & Cyprus, explains: “The government of the Republic of Cyprus exercises no de facto control in the occupied northern part. In theory, the constitution of the Republic of Cyprus from 1960 still applies For example, there is a regulation according to which the vice president of the Republic of Turkey should be a Turkish Cypriot and a third of the members of parliament should come from the Turkish Cypriot community. However, these positions are currently not filled due to the de facto division of the island.”

The conflict has long since hardened. Especially since Turkey, along with Great Britain and Greece, is one of the three guarantor powers of Cyprus “and thus an important player in terms of status, who has a say in the future of the island,” explains political scientist Rau. Turkey’s Cyprus policy is strongly influenced by its own security policy considerations. “In geostrategic terms, Turkish security circles assign the island of Cyprus the role of both an ‘outpost’ to defend the Anatolian mainland and to strengthen influence in the eastern Mediterranean.”

The big challenge: solving the Cyprus question

Numerous mediation attempts by the UN to overcome the division have so far been unsuccessful. Because Turkey, Cyprus and the UN are making different demands for a solution. The latter propose the formation of a federation of two politically equal states. The Greek Cypriots are prepared to do so, but make the formation of a strong central government and a withdrawal of Turkish troops, which according to UN estimates currently number around 30,000 soldiers, a prerequisite. The government in Ankara and that of the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”, on the other hand, are demanding a two-state solution.

The political scientist Dr. Ebru Turhan from the Turkish-German University in Istanbul estimated when asked by the starthat the start of talks on the modernization of the EU-Turkey customs union “could promote the gradual resolution of the Cyprus conflict”. According to this, the European Commission has been waiting since 2017 for a mandate from the EU Council to start negotiations on the customs union.

“However, the EU Council and individual member states such as Germany are blocking the start of these talks because of the eastern Mediterranean crisis and bilateral conflicts. Since the successful conclusion of the reform of the customs union would also require Ankara’s official recognition of a trade relationship with Cyprus, the start of Talks on modernizing the EU-Turkey Customs Union will play a key role in resolving the Cyprus conflict […]” says Turhan.

However, Rau does not believe in an early agreement in the conflict. “Instead of a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus conflict, in the medium term it will be more about relying on confidence-building measures, strengthening civil society activities and creating common infrastructures,” he says. In order to mediate between the fronts, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) offered German support in resolving the Cyprus question after a meeting with the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulidis, at the end of May.

The Turkish embassy in Berlin did not take up Stern’s offer to comment on the Turkish perspective on the subject in the context of this article.