Now Söder could have the Aiwanger affair on his own

Markus Söder is generally considered a man with good instincts. He senses weakness in both enemy and friend and generally knows how to judge when it may be necessary to pull a rip cord politically if it serves his own success. The Bavarian Prime Minister can sway in content like a reed in the wind, but even those who have always been against him don’t deny him a feeling.

Since this Sunday, however, one can ask oneself where this feeling has gone. Söder wants Hubert Aiwanger in office, despite several allegations that the Economics Minister from the Free Voters made jokes about Jews as a teenager, showed Hitler salutes and carried an anti-Semitic pamphlet in his satchel. There is now some evidence that the affair, which began as a leaflet scandal, can now also catch Söder himself.

Aiwanger’s crisis management – an adventurous back and forth

To avoid any misunderstandings, it is debatable whether the pamphlet that Aiwanger’s brother claims to have written was really the right reason to fire the minister. Of course, it is also possible to discuss how much misconduct decades ago actually says about whether a politician is suitable today. And it was sensible for Markus Söder not to have dismissed his economics minister prematurely, but to get an idea for himself first.

But what Söder could have seen for days is what adventurous crisis management Aiwanger drives. At first Aiwanger didn’t want to say anything about it, then he couldn’t remember practically anything, then he apologized a bit, only to now, after a multitude of new allegations, stylize himself as the victim of a campaign.

One almost thinks one is looking at Francesco Schettino, the captain of the “Costa Concordia”, who in 2012 dared to maneuver his cruise ship onto the coast of a Mediterranean island and later wanted to blame another officer for the disaster. Except that it’s not about a cliff in Italy, but about the rock of German history. Anyone who collides with him but doesn’t have the courage to explain how the accident happened should actually be done as a representative of Bavaria.

The fate of Söder and Aiwanger is now even more closely intertwined

Söder’s calculation seems to be to keep the coalition peace with the free voters in order to get reasonably orderly towards the state elections, which will take place in four weeks. But the opposite could also happen if things go badly. Former classmates and teachers don’t stop talking just because Söder declares the cause over. And what actually happens when the next allegations are soon in the room?

Sunday’s decision looks like Söder would vouch for Aiwanger. Every new accusation is likely to put the prime minister in need of explanation alongside Aiwanger, which makes the affair all the more attractive for Söder’s political opponents.

In addition, Söder has to ask himself whether he made his own mistakes. In the answers to the 25 questions that Söder asked him, Aiwanger affirmed that the leaflet incident set a mental process in motion for him at the time, although by and large he cannot remember the incident at all. If there is evidence of Aiwanger’s lack of credibility, then it can be found in the answers to those questions with which Söder actually wanted to clarify the matter.

In any case, peace is unlikely to return until election day. Söder’s political opponents, who have been unable to think of anything against the CSU’s dominance for years, have long been enjoying the affair. And Aiwanger now knows that he has nothing more to fear from his boss.

His strategy of simply reinterpreting his own transgressions as a campaign of alleged informers has paid off. He is likely to continue to market this feeling in the election campaign in a highly unsavory way.

Söder, who is said to still have an eye on the Chancellery, wanted to show how well and prudently he can lead with his days of deliberation. In truth, his decision is one of fear, based on concern that Aiwanger and his people would themselves declare an informer if he dropped the Minister of Economy. Instead of showing strength, the prime minister has revealed his weakness.

A good four weeks before the state elections, this is extremely dangerous.