The Aiwanger case apparently did not harm the Free Voters – on the contrary. The trend in the surveys is clearly pointing upwards.
A month before the Bavarian state elections, the CSU had to accept its lowest poll number in more than a year and a half in the ZDF political barometer with just 36 percent. After the leaflet affair surrounding their chairman, Deputy Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger, the Free Voters can once again be happy about 16 percent in a survey – a record figure.
If there were a state election next Sunday, the Free Voters would be tied with the Greens in second place behind the CSU, according to the survey by the Elections Research Group. Behind them are the AfD with 12 and the SPD with 9 percent. The FDP is at 4 percent in this survey, so it has to worry about getting back into the state parliament. What is striking, however, is that, according to the new political barometer, 43 percent of those surveyed are not yet sure whether and who they actually want to vote for.
In 2018, the Free Voters got 11.6 percent
The Free Voters also recently saw two other surveys at 15 and 16 percent respectively, each with an increase of four points compared to previous surveys by the respective institutes. However, there has not been a ZDF political barometer on Bavaria in the recent past. What is clear, however, is that Aiwanger’s party is currently well above its state election results from 2018: At that time, the Free Voters won 11.6 percent.
A current Civey survey also saw the CSU under party leader and Prime Minister Markus Söder at 36 percent. The party last had worse survey results around the turn of the year 2021/22. In the 2018 state election, the CSU won 37.2 percent.
In principle, election surveys only reflect opinions at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. They are always fraught with uncertainties. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The Elections Research Group states the statistical error tolerance as follows: The error range is +/- three percentage points at a proportion of 40 percent and +/- two percentage points at 10 percent.
The majority of Bavarians support Söder’s decision
According to the survey, a majority of 63 percent of Bavarians believe it is right that Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) left his deputy Aiwanger in office despite the allegations surrounding an anti-Semitic leaflet from his school days. 29 percent of all respondents said the decision was incorrect.
When asked in direct comparison who should become Prime Minister, Söder or the Green Party’s top candidate Ludwig Hartmann, Söder is at 54 percent in the survey, far ahead of Hartmann with 19 percent (rest: “neither” or “don’t know”).
When it comes to the coalition question, the incumbent government alliance of CSU and Free Voters received the highest approval: 48 percent think the model is good (33 percent bad, 14 percent don’t care). A government made up of the CSU and the Greens would be good for 32 percent, but bad for 58 percent (8 percent don’t care). A black-red alliance is also clearly rejected: 49 percent think it’s bad, 30 percent think it’s good, and 19 percent don’t care.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
