United Nations: UN General Debate: What to Expect in New York

20,000 people and more than 140 heads of state and government will crowd into the UN headquarters in New York for the general debate in the coming days, but the focus will be on two in particular.

For the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky will be in New York, and for the first time in a building with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who represents Moscow at the world’s largest diplomatic gathering. A showdown between the two could occur at a meeting of the Security Council, in which Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) also takes part.

Many of those in power, especially from Africa, Latin America and Asia, fear that other conflicts, expectations and the climate crisis could be neglected in the shadow of the Ukraine war. It is not only Kiev that is dependent on the so-called Global South in its defense against Russia: the West, led by US President Joe Biden, who is also visiting, on the one hand, and China and Russia on the other, are also vying for the favor of these states. That’s why they seem prepared to make concessions, which has observers talking about a “global turning point.”

Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine

As the “star of the show”, Zelensky is scheduled to speak on three consecutive days on the East River: on Monday at a development summit on the UN Sustainable Development Goals, on Tuesday on the opening day of the general debate and on Wednesday in the Security Council. “I would say that Zelensky’s visit to New York is both an opportunity for Ukraine and a pretty risky moment,” said UN expert Richard Gowan of the Crisis Group think tank. Zelenskyj could win the goodwill of many heads of government and promote his ideas for a war crimes tribunal or the Ukrainian conditions for peace. On the other hand, he must defend his rejection of talks with Moscow at this time. This is the opposite of what most countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America want, says Gowan. If Zelenskyy “shows himself too intransigent, he could actually turn this opportunity into a kind of diplomatic crisis for Ukraine.”

For Zelenskyj, balance will be particularly important at the highly anticipated Security Council meeting. There he also has to address representatives such as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula, who could call for steps towards peace talks in their speeches. With regard to Lavrov’s expected participation in the meeting of the most powerful UN body, this could lead to a direct clash between Zelensky and the Russian Foreign Minister.

“The stuff that legendary UN moments are made of,” Gowan calls it. It seems likely that Zelensky and Lavrov will alternately leave the round table in front of the huge “Mural of Peace” when the other speaks.

“Quantum Leap” for Humanity Goals?

With the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, the countries of the world gave themselves a north star for global development, which aims to end hunger and extreme poverty by 2030. But Covid, the war in Ukraine and a debt crisis in poor countries have set the goals back extremely: If things continue as before, according to the UN, 575 million people will still be living in extreme poverty and more than 600 million in hunger in 2030.

“The sustainability goals need a global rescue plan,” demands UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who expects a “quantum leap” from a development summit on Monday. Significant steps could become possible, particularly because of the wooing of the powers in the Global South – represented by the G77 group led by Pakistan and Cuba. A statement from all countries on Monday is intended, among other things, to support the “reform of the international financial structure”.

The aim of such a reform would also be to make the World Bank and other institutions work better for developing countries and, for example, to provide them with cheaper loans and access to more money. The United Nations has also repeatedly called for a reduction in the interest burden, which is significantly higher for poor countries with the same level of debt.

Scholz’s second visit to New York

With his trip to New York for the second year in a row, Chancellor Scholz shows that the general debate is important to him – his predecessor Angela Merkel (CDU) only traveled sporadically. It is likely that, in addition to speeches at the sustainability summit on Monday and the general debate on Tuesday, the Chancellor will also meet Zelensky for a discussion. This will probably not be easy because of his demand for Taurus-type cruise missiles, about which the federal government is reluctant.

An appointment on Wednesday is likely to be a little more relaxed, when Scholz will receive the Global Citizen Award from the Atlantic Council think tank. The Chancellor is also expected to promote his climate club on the trip. However, there is unlikely to be any significant progress on the ongoing issue of reforming the Security Council and Germany’s pursuit of a permanent seat.

Scholz – who is supported in New York by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens), Environment Minister Steffi Lemke (Greens) and Development Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD) – is likely to be the most important European representative in New York alongside Zelenskyj. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are not traveling this year. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin traditionally do not come to the general debate anyway.

This means that of the five veto powers in the Security Council, only the USA is represented with Biden at the highest leadership level. While some UN people see this as a bad sign for the profile of the debate, Guterres downplays the limited star appeal: The content counts – and in general we are here at the UN, not at “Vanity Fair”, a “fair”. of vanities”.