Bavaria: GMS survey sees CSU at 36 percent and Free Voters at 17 percent

Almost three weeks before the Bavarian state elections, the CSU remains in low spirits, while the Free Voters are maintaining their record number after the leaflet scandal involving their boss Hubert Aiwanger. In the new “voter check” by Sat.1 Bayern and Antenne Bayern, party leader and Prime Minister Markus Söder’s CSU once again did not get above 36 percent, as in three previous surveys. This is the lowest survey value in more than a year and a half, and it is also below the 2018 election result (37.2 percent).

According to the survey by the GMS institute, the Free Voters remain at 17 percent. They won 11.6 percent in the state elections in autumn 2018, and since then they have governed Bavaria together with the CSU.

Greens at 14, FDP only at 3 percent

According to the survey, if there were a state election next Sunday, the Greens would end up in third place with 14 percent, on a par with the AfD. The SPD is at 9 percent. Things are getting tighter for the FDP: According to this survey, with 3 percent they would clearly fail at the five percent hurdle and would no longer be in the state parliament. GMS surveyed 1,004 people in Bavaria for the representative survey from September 13th to 18th.

In principle, election surveys only reflect opinions at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. They are also always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.