France: The calm is deceptive: Macron under pressure after riots

It was the shooting of a 17-year-old by a police officer that shook France for weeks. The teenager died during a traffic check in a suburb of Paris at the end of June – riots then spread like wildfire.

A massive police presence suppressed the violent nights, which also put President Emmanuel Macron in a dangerous situation. Three months after the riots, there are other domestic political issues that are putting the head of state under pressure. And the presidential camp is looking forward to the outcome of the partial election of the Senate, the French upper house, this Sunday.

Fatal police operations continue

The riots overshadowed other issues for weeks. Macron canceled a state visit to Germany. For a short time, the potential threat to the country’s stability was as great as that of the yellow vest protests that flared up in 2018. Insurance companies have now quantified the damage caused by the nights of riots, including looting and arson, and individual rioters have been convicted.

The fact that there are still fatal police operations against young suspects and that the danger of new riots has by no means been averted was only shown at the beginning of the month during an operation in which a 16-year-old motorcyclist died. The now crisis-tested Macron can at least count it as a success that there was no longer-lasting suburban revolt like in 2005, as some had feared in June.

This calm does not change the fundamental predicament that is slowing down the head of state and his reform ambitions in his second term in office. The centrist politician has no longer had a clear majority in parliament since the elections more than a year ago. All attempts by Macron personally and by Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne to forge alliances – especially with the conservative Républicains – came to nothing. The pension reform, which was pushed through parliament in the spring without a vote despite strong resistance, has revealed the president’s weak position.

High expenses force you to save

The new parliamentary year is unlikely to be any easier for Macron: everything in the budget discussions points to the next showdown between the presidential camp and the opposition. The high expenses during the pandemic and the energy crisis are forcing people to save. It is likely that the government will once again push through its draft budget without a vote using a special paragraph. Loud criticism is already inevitable.

The tough discussions about an amendment to the Migration Act, which has already been postponed several times, are likely to be even more difficult. The fronts between the government and the opposition have hardened. On the one hand, Macron’s camp wants to make it easier to deport asylum seekers. On the other hand, irregular migrants who are already working even though they are not actually entitled to do so should be able to obtain a residence permit more easily.

In doing so, Macron is offending both poles of the opposition: the left are against a stricter course, the conservatives and the right don’t want to hear about concessions to irregular immigrants. The project could lead to a vote of no confidence in the government – with an uncertain outcome.

Macron camp probably without any gains

However, the predictions will be much clearer if some of the Senate is re-elected on Sunday. Tens of thousands of local and regional politicians then elect around half of the 348 senators in indirect elections.

The majority of the Senate currently lies in the hands of conservatives, who are better rooted in France’s regions than the president’s fledgling political movement. And it is expected that it will stay that way. The Macron camp can hardly hope for gains. The focus is more on individual seats that politicians from the left camp or the extreme right hope to conquer without this changing much of Macron’s position.

Analysis of the Senate elections by Le Monde