Nagorno-Karabakh: Why the Kremlin sat idly by during the one-day war

analysis

Russian state media receive instructions from the presidential apparatus on the most important political issues. “Metodichka” is the name given to these written direction papers in which the Kremlin propagandists set the common threads of the reporting. Newspapers, online media and television channels then implemented the handouts on their channels.

The paper on the war in Nagorno-Karabakh has now been made public; the anti-government online medium “Meduza” published it. It says that the blame for Azerbaijan’s brutal rapid conquest of the area lies with Azerbaijan’s arch-enemy Armenia, which is actually a victim of this war. And of course the West, which in Russian terms is always to blame where injustice and violence occurs. Russia, on the other hand, as an independent observer, is heroically saving the people living in Nagorno-Karabakh.

This is how the Kremlin explains to the Russians why Moscow’s peacekeepers stood idly by as Azerbaijan forced the Armenian defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh to surrender.

The Russian peacekeepers were actually supposed to deter Azerbaijan and ensure that the ceasefire agreement negotiated in 2020 was adhered to. In addition to the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents, Russian President Vladimir Putin also signed it at the time. The agreement secured the existence of the separatist republic of Artsakh: Nagorno-Karabakh is predominantly populated by Armenians, but it originally belonged to Azerbaijan. At that time, Russia committed itself to protecting both the republic and the corridor to Armenia with its troops. But Azerbaijan broke the agreement, and the Russian Foreign Ministry was contrite: it was said to have been informed by Azerbaijan only minutes before the attack.

Armenia’s prime minister is a thorn in the side of the Kremlin

In reality, however, Russia may have accepted the attack with approval: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had long been a thorn in Moscow’s side. Having come to office through a peaceful revolution, he always tried to keep his distance from the Kremlin as much as possible. Russia didn’t trust him. Revolutions, street protests – this is what the nightmares of the Russian elite are made of. The Kremlin prefers to turn to Azerbaijan, whose dictator Ilham Aliyev took over his post from his father, a former KGB man. Azerbaijan is larger than Armenia, richer, and an important trading partner of Russia. Russia can no longer afford a deep conflict with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest ally.

The Russian peacekeepers barely protected the corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh, and not even international aid deliveries reached the region. Frustrated, the Armenian prime minister provoked Russia by saying that the Russian military had been weakened by the Ukraine war and was no longer able to fulfill its security guarantees for Armenia. “Armenia’s security architecture was 99.999 percent tied to Russia,” Pashinyan said in an interview in early September. That was a “strategic mistake”. Armenian soldiers demonstratively trained together with US soldiers not far from the capital Yerevan.

The Armenians feel betrayed

Anna Akopyan, wife of the Prime Minister, visited the wife of the Ukrainian President, Olena Zelenska, in Kiev around the same time. She gave a thousand smartphones, tablets and notebooks to Ukrainian students who can only be taught online because of the war. “We are glad that we have these opportunities together with our partner,” the Ukrainian side said afterwards. “Thank you for your support!” Akopyan then took part in a forum on the topic of “mental health” and talked about the difficult fate of the children in Nagorno-Karabakh. Akopyan also met President Zelensky himself, and photographers documented the scene. Moscow raged.

The Armenians are now protesting furiously against their prime minister. They accuse him of the Armenian government’s failure to protect the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. If Pashinyan is unable to stay in office, it will still not be a victory for Russia. The Armenians also feel betrayed by the protecting power of Russia: Armenia is even part of the Russian-led military alliance “Collective Security Treaty Organization”. Moscow has now impressively demonstrated the ineffectiveness of this alliance. Pashinyan had repeatedly demanded in vain that the organization support Armenia with soldiers.

Russian peacekeeping soldiers also died during the Blitz. That’s why the President of Azerbaijan called Putin. He wanted to apologize and announced that he would support the families of the dead. This was reported by the Kremlin press service. He did not publish what Putin replied.