Watch the video: Retired Colonel Ralph Thiele assesses the reports of success during the war.
Thiele, chairman of the Political-Military Society, and former chief of staff at the NATO Defense College as well as former director at the Bundeswehr Command Academy, was long skeptical about reports of Ukrainian success. Now he sees a new situation, a puzzle in the Ukrainian offensive in which more and more elements are coming together…
- “new location after months”
- “There could be a real breakthrough”
- With the Atacms missiles comes a “proper house number” and a “new complexity in warfare”
- The decision about the Bundeswehr’s Taurus rockets has actually been made
On Ukraine’s reported breakthrough in the south
According to him, it is again a gradual one, but still remarkable because it affects a third line of defense and they fought their way through line of defense, including with tanks. “Basically promises that a real breakthrough could now be achieved, i.e. a new situation after many months.”
He also observes a new strategy among the Ukrainians, a kind of “multi-domain warfare,” meaning the Ukrainians attack at different levels. So cyber war, at the same time communications centers are attacked, targets at sea, etc. Thiele sees this as “qualitative progress”.
Atacm’s missiles: They will probably only deliver a few Atacms rockets of their own to Ukraine, but together with the weapon systems from France and Great Britain and the Taurus rockets, that would be a total of around 1,000 precision weapons that can be effective, especially over long distances. Thiele calls it a “new complexity of warfare.” Attrition can now also take place in depth, i.e. attacks on “Russian command posts, logistical centers or industrial sites.” According to Thiele, the Russians have around 6,000 Iranian drones to counter this. It’s still totally unclear which side will have more advantages. Only the next few months will show that.
Taurus rockets from the Bundeswehr
“The decision has basically been made.” Because the USA is delivering, Germany will now also agree to this. The big problem will be getting the project off the ground. Soldiers are needed to program the missiles. These cannot be soldiers and Thiele suspects that contracts will now be entered into with external companies or former soldiers. Training the Ukrainian troops is of course also conceivable, but it will take time. And what you absolutely need: jets, like the F16, to transport the rockets. “The F16s will certainly arrive in Ukraine at the end of the year. But then only a few will be usable. The Ukrainians will need until the end of 2024 until they can confidently operate the F16s, so to speak, for the majority of them, with pilots and all the logistics around it.”
On the range of the Taurus and Atacms
You will now be able to attack the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, but also the Donbass with Taurus and theoretically targets in Russia. So, it may be that at some point Ukraine will ask itself why they shouldn’t send this weapon to Russia too. International law, for example, does not prohibit this. You keep pushing back what you think is a red line for Putin, says Thiele.
To Pistorius in the Baltics
Defending the Baltics will be sporty. This brigade in Lithuania is actually supposed to have more or less symbolic character. If Russia attacks there, this force should hold the position until NATO reinforcements arrive. But this strengthening of NATO does not exist in this form. “They provide a bit of protection. In case the corridor between Russia and Königsberg is abused. They could stop attacks there.” At the same time, he also says: We have to be careful that we don’t just send signals all the time and there’s nothing behind them.
Tamara Bilic speaks with retired Colonel Ralph Thiele, Chairman of the Political-Military Society.
Source: Stern

I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.