Scholz meets Meloni: When does the ice age end?

The Italian newspaper “Corriere della sera” gave the patient an alarming diagnosis. He is currently suffering from a “high fever”.

The patient is German-Italian relations. After the election of the post-fascist Giorgia Meloni almost exactly a year ago, these were already considered to be in trouble. But now they are in a real crisis. A meeting between Meloni and Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the southern Spanish city of Granada is intended to improve relations again.

47 heads of state and government from almost all European countries will meet there this Thursday under Spanish patronage. The “European Political Community” is the name of this format, which was launched two years ago.

On Friday, the heads of the EU want to continue deliberating on their own as an exclusive club in a small group. Then Scholz and Meloni also want to meet on the sidelines of the official program.

The focus of the dispute is Germany’s refugee policy. The number of migrants arriving in Italy has been increasing dramatically for months. According to the Interior Ministry, over 100,000 boat refugees arrived by August, around twice as many as in the same period last year.

Tasteless comparison

There is outrage in Italy that ships belonging to non-governmental organizations under the German flag are rescuing people in distress off the coast of Italy, who then apply for asylum in Italy. The European border protection agency “Frontex” sees this as a “pull factor”, an incentive for illegal migrants to risk the dangerous journey across the Mediterranean.

At the end of September, Meloni demanded information in a letter to Scholz about why Germany continued to finance such rescue ships. Your coalition partner went even further. Andrea Crippa from the Lega Nord, who is considered a confidant of Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, accused Germany of trying to bring down the Italian government through illegal migration – and in doing so went on to make a – carefully worded – rather daring historical comparison: “August 80 “Years ago, the German government decided to invade other countries with the army, but that went wrong. Now it is funding the invasion of illegal immigrants to destabilize governments that the Social Democrats don’t like.”

The first rumors are already circulating that the row could endanger the German-Italian government consultations planned for November.

The “Mediterranean Pact” also appears to be collapsing

Officially, the German government has so far reacted largely calmly. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized the Lega Nord’s Nazi comparison during her Italian counterpart’s visit. But the attacks by Meloni and her allies did not lead to major disruptions.

The reason: In contrast to her appearance in the election campaign, the head of the Fratelli d’Italia presented herself more as a real politician to the EU and the federal government after the election. Meloni was also conciliatory during her two visits to the Federal Chancellery.

But that has now changed. Because the Italian Prime Minister is under pressure domestically. She took office as the first woman to lead Italy with a promise to combat illegal migration. Instead, it is increasing.

Meloni’s “Mediterranean Pact” with Tunisia, in which the local government promised the EU to curb the number of migrants coming through their transit country, has also proven to be ineffective. What’s more: President Kais Saied appears to be allowing the agreement to collapse Shortly before the EU meeting in Granada, he rejected the EU’s promised financial aid, saying that his country did not need any “handouts”.

“Meloni reaches into the bag of tricks of prejudice”

If Meloni doesn’t find a solution to reduce the numbers, she will have to fear for her popularity and power. For the Lega Nord, the issue is ideal for claiming more influence in the government.

“The criticism of Germany is purely a diversionary tactic,” says Tobias Mörschel, head of the Italian office of the SPD-affiliated Friedrich Ebert Foundation: “Meloni is under pressure to justify himself. They are looking for a foreign policy opponent.” Meloni reaches into the “box of tricks of prejudice and resentment” in order to “instrumentalize stereotypes of German-Italian relations”.

Mörschel considers the dispute over refugee boats to be a sham debate. “The vast majority of refugees in distress at sea were not rescued by non-governmental organizations flying the German flag but by the Italian coast guard.”

Mörschel also doesn’t think much of the Italian government’s demand that refugees should receive an asylum procedure in the country under whose flag they were rescued from the Mediterranean: “This demand violates international law and is purely politically motivated.” Many people see that too Lawyers like that.

Controversial sentence is deleted

Meloni was still able to achieve a small victory. In the dispute over the EU’s asylum reform, Italy ensured that a positive wording about the role of lifeboats was deleted from the new crisis regulation, which contains rules for times of particularly strong migration movements. This is a defeat, especially for the German Greens, who had attached great importance to this formulation.

Italy expert Mörschel believes that Meloni is not enough. They need a (at least symbolic) concession from Scholz that Germany wants to provide more support to Italy in combating illegal migration – and is also prepared to impose restrictions on the financing of sea rescue.

Scholz has to practice crisis psychology

Meanwhile, the Chancellor has to do other crisis psychology in Granada. The EU meeting is intended to help prevent further escalation of tension between Serbia and Kosovo.

The attempt to mediate directly between Armenia and Azerbaijan failed before Granada: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev canceled his participation in the EU meeting at short notice. His spokesman said he had other appointments.

A meeting with Volodymyr Selenskyi, the Ukrainian President, was scheduled for Thursday afternoon.