There are state elections in Hesse and Bavaria on Sunday. The election winners are almost certain. Things get interesting when it comes to coalition formation.
A few days before the state elections in Hesse and Bavaria, the Union parties CDU and CSU remain in the lead according to the current ZDF “Politbarometer”. In a survey published in the evening by the Elections Research Group, Hesse’s Prime Minister Boris Rhein’s CDU achieved a figure of 32 percent for the “Sunday question”, as in the previous week. There is no change in the other parties either: According to the survey, the Greens and SPD are still at 17 percent and the AfD at 16 percent. The FDP would have to worry about entering the state parliament with 5 percent, while the Left would not be represented in Wiesbaden with an unchanged 3 percent.
CSU in Bavaria at 37 percent
Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder’s CSU gained one percentage point and ended up at 37 percent. This would roughly match the result of the 2018 state election (37.2 percent).
However, the values of the coalition partner Free Voters (15 percent) and the opposition parties Greens (16 percent), AfD (14 percent) and SPD (9 percent) remain unchanged compared to the previous week. According to the survey, the FDP would not be represented in the state parliament with 3 percent (minus 1).
Many voters are still undecided
According to “Politbarometer”, however, many voters are undecided. In Hesse, 32 percent of those surveyed do not yet know who they want to vote for. In Bavaria it is 28 percent. For the representative survey, 1,000 randomly selected eligible voters in Hesse were interviewed by telephone and online from October 4th to 5th. In Bavaria there were 1,209 randomly selected eligible voters.
Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The research group indicates a statistical margin of error of two to three percentage points. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.
ZDF “Political Barometer”
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
