EU summit: Ukraine aid and asylum reform: EU is threatened with a breaking point

The EU is facing a new test because of the dispute over migration policy and aid for Ukraine. Hungary and Poland prevented a planned declaration on migration policy at a summit in Granada, Spain. The reason was the ongoing anger over plans for an asylum reform, which envisages mandatory solidarity with states particularly affected by migration. In addition, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced resistance to support plans for Ukraine.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized Poland and Hungary for their stance on the migration issue, without naming the states. Countries that criticized the common European approach to irregular migration should not simultaneously “wave” refugees through to Germany, he said.

Hungary blocks aid to Ukraine

Regarding proposals to make up to 70 billion euros available to support Ukraine by the end of 2027, Orban said that under no circumstances would they agree to an ill-considered budget expansion. Hungary wants a ceasefire and peace. Additional arms deliveries would prolong the killing, he argued.

Hungary could use a veto to prevent aid from being financed via the EU. However, it is likely that Orban will agree to the aid – especially if, in return, EU funds are released to Hungary, which are currently frozen in the country due to constitutional deficits.

Migration remains a bone of contention

Hungary and Poland’s no to a joint declaration on migration policy had already become apparent in the morning. Hungary’s Prime Minister Orban said that in his view there was no longer any chance of compromises and agreements after Hungary and Poland had been “legally raped”.

Orban alluded to the fact that important decisions for the planned reform of the European asylum system were recently made by majority vote against the will of Hungary and Poland. Regardless of legal analyzes to the contrary, the two countries are of the opinion that this could only have happened by consensus, i.e. without dissenting votes. They are therefore calling for the consensus principle for migration decisions to be enshrined in the next EU declaration.

The blocking of the planned joint declaration on migration has no immediate impact on the ongoing process for European asylum reform. However, it is conceivable that Poland and Hungary will use the current negotiations on a revision of the long-term EU budget to put further pressure on the issue of asylum reform. Unanimity is required on this issue, and the revision should also allow financial aid to Ukraine to continue.

On the sidelines of the summit on the asylum dispute, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki emphasized that he was not afraid to resist the “diktat from Brussels and Berlin”. After the end, he commented on the veto decision by saying that Poland remained safe under the leadership of the ruling PiS party. This wants to defend its power in the parliamentary elections on October 15th.

Poland and Hungary are particularly opposed to the fact that, according to the plans, some of the asylum seekers will be taken from heavily burdened countries such as Italy and Greece in the future. Countries that do not want to accept refugees would be forced to make compensation payments.

On Wednesday, the EU agreed on plans for a crisis mechanism, according to which it can deviate widely from normal protection standards for these people in the event of a larger influx of migrants. Poland and Hungary rejected this part of the reform as inadequate, but were outvoted.

EU is considering expanding military operations in the Mediterranean

In addition to the planned asylum reform, the EU could also rely more heavily on military operations in the future in the fight against unwanted migration. According to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, a possible expansion of Operation Irini is currently being examined. Their main mission is actually to monitor an arms embargo against Libya.

Now there are considerations about using this to curb human trafficking and human smuggling in Tunisia. But this would require the consent of the government in Tunis because such a mission could only be successful in Tunisian territorial waters, said Borrell. The Spaniard also says he is considering whether an EU advisory mission to support border protection in Tunisia could make sense. This could then also make it more difficult for migrants to cross the country’s southern borders to the Mediterranean coast in the future.

First reforms, then expansion

The heads of state and government are also addressing the question of how the EU can remain able to act on all of these conflict issues even with even more members. In Granada, Chancellor Olaf Scholz pushed for a reform of the EU in order to make it fit to accept additional countries. “We must then be able to make decisions with qualified majorities so that the sovereignty and ability of the European Union to act is guaranteed,” he said. Currently, many decisions can only be made with the consent of all 27 member states, including in foreign and security policy.

You also have to think about the number of members of the EU Commission, said Scholz. “You can’t just keep expanding the government and inventing new ministries.” It is also about the number of seats in the European Parliament and the financing of the community of states. A statement from the summit in Granada on the subject said that enlargement was a “geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity. Anyone who wanted to join would have to intensify reform efforts, particularly in the area of ​​the rule of law. At the same time, the Union had to make the necessary internal ones Laying the foundations – including reforms.

decision in December

A decision will be made in December as to whether accession negotiations will begin with Ukraine and Moldova and whether Georgia will be granted accession candidate status. EU Council President Charles Michel recently said that the EU should be ready to accept countries like Ukraine by 2030. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen supports rapid expansion, but does not give a date.

Admitting Ukraine is considered a Herculean task – for example because the war-torn country is comparatively large and would probably have to receive significant financial subsidies for the foreseeable future. In addition, the huge agricultural sector would make a comprehensive reform of EU agricultural subsidies necessary. EU experts recently calculated that without changes, EU funds totaling 186 billion euros would flow to Ukraine over a budget period of seven years.