State elections: Markus Söder’s hope, Nancy Faeser’s debacle

1. Is anything actually changing here?

One result of the elections in Bavaria and Hesse: A lot of things will probably stay the same. Markus Söder (CSU) will continue to rule his beautiful Bavaria in the future, Boris Rhein (CDU) can continue to make himself comfortable in the state chancellery in Wiesbaden. While Söder, who got almost 37 percent of the vote in an early ARD projection, committed early on to continuing his “Bayern coalition” with the Free Voters, things could get a little more exciting in Hesse. In addition to the current black-green coalition, a coalition with the SPD would also be conceivable – except that Rhine is unlikely to be very responsive to the comrades thanks to a failed and later deleted SPD election video.

2. Rhine goes through the middle

Boris Rhein emulates Hendrik Wüst – and goes through the middle: Just like his counterpart in North Rhine-Westphalia, the Hesse man had only been at the head of the state for a relatively short time when the election campaign began. Now he is achieving an equally brilliant victory.

In this way, Rhein not only defends his place in the state government, but also gains weight in the federal party. This will have an impact on the Union’s struggle to find the right course after the Merkel era: While CDU leader Merz and CSU leader Söder have recently attracted attention with pithy and even populist statements, Wüst is promoting a more moderate tone. This is also likely to be a concern for Rhein, who has not yet attracted attention with divisive statements.

3. Söder comes away with a white-blue eye

For Markus Söder it is a historic evening, but unfortunately historically bad. The Bavarian Prime Minister and his CSU ended up roughly where they were five years ago – around 37 percent. The Christian Socialists were never worse. But measured against the expectations after the leaflet affair surrounding Hubert Aiwanger, this is a result that Söder will even be able to live with. He didn’t fall off and can claim that he was able to maintain his result despite the most difficult circumstances and massive competition from the right. Let’s move on, that should be the message. Söder had already decided on a coalition with the Free Voters.

This is unlikely to change the internal Union debate about who will lead the CDU and CSU in the federal election campaign in 2025. The result is too bad for Söder to be able to derive a direct claim to the candidacy for chancellor. But it’s also too good to throw in the towel straight away when it comes to the K question. Anyone who knows Söder knows that, despite everything, he probably feels strong enough to have a say in the appointment schedule next year.

And he will probably keep a close eye on Friedrich Merz. The state elections, the only true measure of his popularity, are over for Söder, from now on little can happen to him, he can lurk and wait for others to make mistakes. Friedrich Merz is completely different: The CDU leader is already ailing, but next year he also has to go through a European election and three difficult state elections in the east. Enough opportunities to get into further turbulence. Stay tuned.

4. Nancy Lambrecht?

Oweia, SPD. In both countries, the Social Democrats are performing miserably. While this is already a tradition in Bavaria, the SPD in Hesse is plummeting to its worst result ever. That was certainly it for Nancy Faeser in the office of Federal Minister of the Interior. Or?

Not so fast. Despite her disgraceful performance and various mistakes in the election campaign, Faeser is likely to remain minister for the time being. The Chancellor is not inclined to cabinet reshuffles; he wants to avoid any unrest. He dragged the hapless Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht into the cabinet even when half the SPD was making fun of her. Olaf Scholz can be defiant. When everyone runs in one direction, he runs even more in the other. That’s probably how it will be this time too. Nancy Lambrecht, if you will.

But that also means: Faeser does not have an eternal guarantee of political survival. The election campaign has seriously damaged them, perhaps even irreparably, as the coming weeks will show. She is now likely to be in the media and her opponents’ focus even more than before. Faeser heads one of the federal government’s central ministries; she has to manage asylum policy; hardly any field is more dangerous for the Chancellor. From now on, every mistake can mean Faeser’s end.

Incidentally, Lambrecht also experienced this. She filmed a New Year’s Eve video late last year. Then even Scholz realized: Now it’s no longer possible. A little later, Lambrecht resigned.

5. Christian, the cramp continues

You now know this feeling in the FDP. State election, 6 p.m., the first forecast, and the big tremors begin. In this respect, it is almost a relief that at least one thing is immediately clear on this Sunday evening: This will definitely not happen in Bavaria. The Liberals are thrown out of the state parliament again after five years, crushed in the election campaign between the CSU and the Free Voters.

And in Hesse? The shaking continues. In or not in – this game can take a few hours. If it is just enough, the party leadership’s analysis will be: The clear demarcation from the traffic light government was successful. Pure FDP works. The liberal signature had to be made clear. If it’s just not enough, the analysis will be: Unfortunately, the FDP’s difficult situation in the traffic lights didn’t exactly help the election campaigners. In the future, we need to emphasize even more what the FDP is pure. The liberal signature must become clearer.

Seen this way, you can actually save yourself the jitters on this election evening.

6. AfD goes West

The AfD benefits like no other party from dissatisfaction with the federal government, gaining several percentage points in both countries. In Hesse, the AfD will probably become the second strongest force – and would therefore achieve its best result to date in West Germany. An alarm signal for the established parties, for several reasons.

First: The AfD was able to turn its good poll numbers into great successes. Secondly: The narrative that the rise of right-wing populists is a purely East German phenomenon has been finally refuted. And thirdly: the irritating and controversial topic of migration has obviously helped the AfD. If the traffic light coalition – with its ailing Interior Minister Faeser – does not soon present a solution on how irregular migration to Germany can be better controlled, the AfD is likely to gain even further. The extreme right is already in second place in the national trend. And next year there will be elections again: in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony. The AfD even leads the polls there without exception.

7. Will it finally dismantle the left?

Is the store going to fall apart now? Co-party leader Janine Wissler already has 99 problems, and now Hesse is added – of all places. The Left Party has been represented in the Wiesbaden state parliament since 2008, led by Wissler himself from 2009 to 2021. Now the Left is losing its last state parliament mandate in a western German state. This is fatal for the external image of the already stumbling party; the centrifugal forces towards a potentially more promising party led by Sahra Wagenknecht could become greater.

For Wissler, the defeat certainly means a further loss of authority. Together we create a weakening party with a weakening leader. Bottom line: not good.