State election: Bavarian turning point: between the CSU bankruptcy and a slide to the right

This state election evening in Bavaria is a turning point in many respects. For the CSU, because after its bankruptcy in 2018 it has to cope with another historically bad election result. For Markus Söder, because even after a good five years in government as Prime Minister, he cannot make any progress. For the AfD and Free Voters, who, in contrast, achieved new record results. And for the FDP, which is – once again – thrown out of parliament after five years. The other two traffic light parties, the Greens and the SPD, also lose.

“Bavaria has chosen stability,” says Söder in his first reaction. “And the CSU clearly won this election.” All he says about the meager result: “It was never about a beauty prize, but about a clear government mandate.” They now want to ensure that a democratic and stable Bavaria is preserved.

Of course, things could have been a little worse for Söder and the CSU – some surveys recently saw them at only 36 percent. But the fact is: the Christian Socialists are miles away from previous election results and a long way from their own claims from the recent past. In any case, the old Franz Josef Strauss credo that there should be no democratically legitimate party to the right of the Union is history.

Plus for free voters

The Free Voters under their chairman Hubert Aiwanger are happy about a decent increase after the turbulence caused by the leaflet affair – even if they ultimately do not reach the record figures in some surveys of up to 17 percent. “I am very satisfied,” says Aiwanger, speaking of a “dream result.”

But he admits: “Of course there would still be more wishes for improvement.” But “an even more radical development” – and even greater success for the AfD – was prevented.

But the plus for the right-wing populist AfD is still bigger – in any case it is the biggest plus of this Bavarian election evening. At around 10 p.m., projections from ARD and ZDF even put the party in second place behind the CSU. The cheering is correspondingly great. Parliamentary group leader Ulrich Singer argues: “This clearly shows that we have done really strong and good work.”

Analysis: CSU loses previous exceptional position in Bavaria

According to an analysis, the CSU in Bavaria owes its victory in the state elections to structural advantages, its expertise and the desire for political continuity. However, the traditional party has lost its exceptional position in terms of government work, its top candidate and its reputation, wrote the elections research group in its election evaluation.

From the perspective of 52 percent of those surveyed, this also applies to “the feeling for what really moves Bavaria.” The AfD and Free Voters could partially close this gap.

The election researchers write that the CSU now offers targets. And: “In addition to a party image that is moderately good by Bavarian standards, the CSU has a partially convincing top candidate.” However, Markus Söder has no competition as the next head of government. “The fact that the CSU remains clearly the strongest party is primarily due to relative advantages.” Despite not being at the same level in previous years, it is still ahead of all other parties in terms of reputation, with a score of plus 1.6.

Söder should especially thank the older generation. “The CSU gets 47 percent of those aged 60 and over, while among those under 30 the CSU (23 percent) and the Greens (20 percent) are close together.” When viewed, Bavaria’s Prime Minister achieved a value of plus 1.3 on the +5/-5 scale – even without any competition.

This is how it continues for Söder

At least three challenges and two questions now await Söder. The first thing he has to do is explain and defend the disappointing result. If the CSU actually ends up slipping below the 37.2 percent of 2018, it would be the second worst CSU result after 1950.

Söder and the CSU will blame a lot on solidarity effects with Aiwanger after his affair over an anti-Semitic leaflet. That should also save Söder. Especially since there is no other Söder breathing down his neck, no one who poses a threat to him.

Secondly, he now has to form a coalition very quickly. Söder and Aiwanger left no doubt on election evening that the CSU and Free Voters want and will continue their alliance. Nevertheless, there is likely to be a struggle not only over individual content, but also over positions: who gets how many ministries – and which ones?

The aim will be to conclude the coalition negotiations within three weeks: until the constitutive session of the new state parliament, which – the time frame is set by the Bavarian constitution – is planned for October 30th.

The third, much greater challenge, and this is what Söder will be judged on above all, is that he has to keep his promise from the end of the election campaign to hold the country together. Or better: bring them back together. A lot has gone wrong in this bitter election campaign over the past few weeks. The political climate seems to be more heated than ever – and the CSU and Söder themselves, and especially the Free Voters, also play a large part in this.

Their election campaign as a whole was not characterized by content, but rather by hostility and attacks, especially against the Greens. The inglorious low point in this 2023 state election campaign was when a man threw a stone at the Green Party’s top duo Katharina Schulze and Ludwig Hartmann. No one was hit or physically injured. However, the country’s climate has suffered further damage. Will Söder now manage to leave the election campaign noise behind him and become Prime Minister for everyone again instead of CSU party leader?

The K question

On the other hand, the next elections are coming up next year – and probably a new test of strength for Söder. After the European elections and at the latest after the elections in several eastern countries, in which the CDU under its federal chairman Friedrich Merz is threatened with serious bankruptcies, the Union will have to decide on the K question.

What if surveys then again suggest that the Union would have the best chance of victory with Söder as its candidate for chancellor in 2025? In the end, the big question is probably not whether Söder wants to know again. But how he does it.

And the second big question is: How will Söder orient the CSU in the future? The conservative change in course apparently did not help the party – but rather significantly strengthened the Free Voters and especially the AfD, true to the motto: When in doubt, people prefer to vote for the original.

Isn’t it unwise for Söder to stay on this course? Isn’t it unwise to chain yourself so tightly to the Free Voters in the long term? Or does he not have to open the CSU more towards the center-left again and revive and continue the modernization course that he had recently abandoned?

And the other parties?

The Greens must now pin their hopes on the 2028 state elections. Then, if she still wants to by then, parliamentary group leader Katharina Schulze can run as candidate for prime minister – because she will then have reached the minimum age of 40 years stipulated in the Bavarian constitution. Quite a few believe that a Söder-Schulze duel would have been a little more exciting this time too.

And how will the SPD organize itself until then, since under its new party and parliamentary group leader Florian von Brunn it will again not be able to get past the ten percent mark? What’s more: the Chancellor’s party will be the smallest of only five parliamentary groups in the new state parliament.

And how will the strongly strengthened AfD, deeply divided in the last legislative period, present itself in the state parliament in the future?

The FDP in Bavaria, in turn, has to reinvent itself again – and possibly reposition itself. For Martin Hagen, although one of the best speakers in the state parliament so far, his days at the top could be numbered.