The longer the war against Hamas lasts, the less likely an early peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be, says former Obama advisor Steven N. Simon in an interview with star. And he explains how the fight between Israel and Gaza could end.
Some refer to October 6, 2023 as Israel’s Pearl Harbor or 9/11. Are these comparisons valid?
Steven Simon: We will probably only know that in a few years. We cannot yet predict the impact of this attack on the Israeli population and how the country will respond. Will this be a crucial turning point in history? This has happened in the past, for example after the Yom Kippur War of 1973.
At that time, Egypt, Syria and other Arab states attacked Israel.
And seven years later, the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt was in force. Such a development was hardly foreseeable in 1973.
Israel is considering a large-scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Can this work?
I’m not sure how big this ground offensive will really be. This would result in incredible losses for Israel. Hamas has had many years to set up traps and obstacles. This would significantly slow down Israeli advances and cost many lives. The Gaza Strip is very cramped and urban areas can be well defended. Hamas would fight in such a way that as many Israeli soldiers as possible would die.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said the goal is to transform the realities in Gaza for the next 50 years. What does that mean?
I’m not sure. The Israeli response is likely to be very violent and far-reaching. But I think they’ll try to do most of it by air and sea. That would minimize losses.
Hamas has kidnapped numerous people in the Gaza Strip. How can they be saved alive?
In the past, Hamas has held prisoners for long periods of time. Many were used for barter. Israeli prisoners against Hamas people. Even if there is a ground offensive, Hamas is likely to take the prisoners to places where the Israelis are unlikely to find them. Israel is already using mediators, especially the Egyptians, to free the hostages. But I have doubts whether this will work.
One of Hamas’s goals is apparently to sabotage the peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Will she succeed?
That will largely depend on whether the USA manages to define a tipping point. Washington must give the Israeli government as much time as it needs to defeat Hamas. But if this conflict lasts too long, negotiations with Saudi Arabia will be in serious danger. The longer the war lasts and the more victims there are, the less the Saudis could justify a peace agreement. Washington must influence Israel to ensure that this war does not last too long.
In your opinion, when would this tipping point be reached or even exceeded?
There is no single point, many factors come into play: If electricity and water are cut off, the health care of the people in Gaza will suffer massively. The damage to critical infrastructure must not become so severe that reconstruction is almost impossible. And the number of deaths must remain within a certain limit. At some point there will come a point at which we think: This is disproportionate, otherwise Gaza will never recover.
Iran supports Hamas financially and with weapons. Is the country partly responsible for the attack?
It is true that Iran provides weapons to Hamas. You cannot completely absolve the country of responsibility. But US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken says there is no evidence the attack was planned in Iran or directed from there. I’m assuming that’s true.
“There are American weapons depots in Israel for such emergencies”
The Wall Street Journal reports that Iranian security authorities were said to have been involved in planning the attacks. The newspaper refers to members of Hamas and the terrorist organization Hezbollah.
The research is pretty incoherent. The article states that the Europeans knew about Iran’s involvement in advance. If the Europeans knew this, the Americans knew it too. Then why wouldn’t they have warned Israel? That doesn’t make any sense in my opinion.
There is also speculation that Russia may be involved. If war breaks out in the Middle East, it could distract the US from Ukraine. Does this suggest that Russia is involved?
I think that’s unlikely. Of course, some Russians are now hoping for exactly such an effect. But the US can focus on both. At the moment, Washington is sending an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean. This is a symbol to show support for Israel, but nothing more.
Can America support both Ukraine and Israel with military supplies?
I think so. There are even American depots in Israel for such emergencies.
Ukraine is also supplied from these depots.
Yes, but they are not empty. The question is what the Israelis actually need from American stocks. Israel uses 155-millimeter artillery ammunition. The USA also delivered these to Ukraine. But that’s the only overlap. The anti-aircraft systems “Iron Dome” and “David’s Sling” are crucial for Israel. These are Israel’s own products; America can’t supply anything for them. Washington could, however, help finance the production of new interceptor missiles for the systems. I think that’s realistic.
“This presupposes the destruction of the Hamas leadership”
In the spring you published a new book called “Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East.” How can the US be helpful in this situation?
The US’s influence is limited, but there are starting points. First, Joe Biden’s government could convince Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the opposition’s offer to form a government of national unity and break away from his ultra-right coalition partners. And secondly, with this unity government, Washington could work together to reach some kind of agreement with Gaza so that such an attack will not happen again in the foreseeable future.
But that would only be possible without Hamas, right?
We are talking about an ideal scenario that is extremely difficult to achieve. The Palestinian Authority (PLO) must regain control of Gaza. This requires the destruction of the Hamas leadership. If that were to happen, the Palestinians would need massive help from outside, otherwise the new government there wouldn’t last 30 seconds. The United Nations would have to play a significant role. And the PLO would have to be stabilized so that Hamas does not come back. To achieve this, the Palestinians would also have to work with the Israeli security authorities. All of this should only be possible if there is a government of national unity in Israel. And even with her it won’t be easy.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
