Shift to the right in the states: AfD celebrates “double boom” – traffic lights under pressure after elections

At the start of the week after the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse, only the AfD is really in the mood to celebrate: party leader Alice Weidel confidently steps in front of the microphones in Berlin and speaks of a “double boom” for her party. She sees the AfD now also having arrived in the West.

Among the Union parties, the actual election winners, the joy on Monday was masked by thoughtful tones. “Our democracy is fraying and splintering,” says Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) in Munich. For him, the fact that the AfD is entering two state parliaments in the West with new top ratings is “not a good sign”.

AfD record in Hesse

In Hesse, the AfD achieved its highest result in state elections in a western German state since its founding in 2013 with 18.4 percent and became the second strongest force. In Bavaria it improved from 10.2 to 14.6 percent and became the third strongest party.

In both federal states, however, the SPD, Greens and FDP are being punished. The Chancellor’s SPD party achieved its historically worst results, the FDP was almost thrown out of parliament in Bavaria and in Hesse, and the Greens also suffered losses. It wasn’t “just” two state elections, it was a bitter lesson for the traffic light coalition at the halfway point of the electoral period.

A detailed look at the election results (ARD, infratest dimap):

– The AfD is sometimes achieving results that were previously only known from eastern German states. Example constituency Wetterau II in Hesse: 27.2 percent. Even in Bavaria, where another rival party to the right of the CSU, the Free Voters, has established itself, the AfD has over 20 percent in some constituencies.

– In Bavaria, according to infratest dimap, 80,000 voters from the traffic light parties switched to the AfD, including 20,000 from the Green camp. In Hesse, the SPD, FDP and Greens lost more than 60,000 net voters to the AfD. The party was also able to benefit significantly from voters who did not vote at all in the last state election or who voted for other parties, including the CDU, Free Voters and even the Left.

– 80 (Hesse) to 85 (Bavaria) percent of AfD voters say: “I don’t care that some of it is considered right-wing extremist, as long as it addresses the right issues.”

– The AfD’s electorate is not limited to older men. It grew particularly strongly in the group of people under 60 (up to 9 percentage points more) and even among young adults. “What is noticeable among those under 30 is that the AfD is atypically strong in this age group (18 percent),” says the election analysis by the Elections Research Group on the results in Bavaria.

– From the perspective of many voters (Bavaria 54 percent, Hesse 51 percent), the state elections were an opportunity to give the federal government a lesson, with which 69 (Hesse) to 77 percent (Bavaria) were dissatisfied.

– Economy, climate and energy and immigration played a major role in the voting decision. 83 percent of voters in Bavaria and 72 percent in Hesse are of the opinion that a different asylum and refugee policy is needed “so that fewer people come.”

Liberation or a steady hand: What does Scholz do?

The question arises as to what consequences the traffic light government is now drawing from the election disaster, especially the boss: Chancellor Olaf Scholz. It is quite possible that he will now take the reins of action on the issue into his own hands. “The number of refugees seeking to go to Germany is too high at the moment,” the SPD politician told the Germany editorial network before the election.

The Union is pushing for a Germany pact between the government and the opposition to curb irregular immigration. Scholz sees the heads of state government rather than the CDU chairman Friedrich Merz as his interlocutors. He will meet with them in Berlin on November 6th to talk about migration policy. He has until then to take the offensive on the issue.

Surveys also show that people expect more leadership from the Chancellor, and that he will take quicker and tougher action when the smaller coalition partners the Greens and the FDP are at odds. Scholz recently made it clear once again that he does not believe that such a leadership style will work in a difficult three-party coalition: “Because it is like someone who constantly bangs something on the table and in the end has to go to the doctor , because of the treatment of his fist.”

Counted but not knocked out: Faeser remains Interior Minister

Scholz will hold on to his Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, who suffered a crushing defeat as the Hessian SPD’s top candidate and is particularly challenged in the area of ​​migration. “He is determined to continue working with Nancy Faeser as Federal Minister of the Interior in the cabinet,” government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit made clear on Monday. And party leader Saskia Esken added that Faeser had “done a great job and achieved more than many of her predecessors.”

Dispute or discipline: what does the traffic light fiasco do?

The question remains, what will the fiasco do to the traffic lights? The FDP has already started a row in the coalition during previous election defeats – without this helping it in the next elections or in surveys at the federal level. Party leader Christian Lindner called for a kind of inventory of government work on Monday. The task now is to critically examine the government’s work. Overall, it must be concluded that the coalition does not meet the expectations of the citizens. This applies to the areas of economy, migration, energy policy and social liberality.

The Greens see no reason for a substantive course correction. What needs to change, however, is the style of the traffic light government, which – instead of showcasing its shared successes – is often perceived by the public as divided, said party leader Omid Nouripour in Berlin. The long-planned coalition committee on October 20th could be a first opportunity for a critical inventory.

A crucial six months without an election campaign

In any case, the traffic light doesn’t have much time left to achieve great things on the top issues of migration, de-bureaucratization and the fight against the economic downturn. The next six months will be largely free of election campaigns. This will be followed by a long-term election campaign until the federal election in autumn 2025, which will begin with the European elections and local elections in nine countries on June 9th. The state elections next year in September in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, from which the AfD could emerge as the winner for the first time, have the potential to shake up the political landscape. Surveys recently saw them at over 30 percent each.