Ukrainian and US intelligence services expect Russia to launch a major attack on Ukraine in late January. But many observers believe that Vladimir Putin is building a new military threat scenario to put NATO under pressure.
According to CNN, the White House is considering sending military advisers to Ukraine and weapons that were actually intended for Afghanistan. However, there were dissenting voices: The appearance of the Stinger and Mi-17 in Ukraine could see Russia as an escalation.
Big geopolitical consequences
Nerves are strained, in Washington as in Moscow. According to US and Ukrainian intelligence services, the Kremlin is preparing a major war against Ukraine. The Russians were planning a major attack in late January or early February, said Kirill Budanov, head of military intelligence at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, confirming US information. Moscow had already gathered 94,000 men at the front and had also posted 1,200 tanks and Iskander ballistic missiles there. Before that, the Russian secret services would try to instigate protests in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities, for example against Covid vaccinations, in order to create the occasion for an attack. According to the Ukrainian intelligence, the Russians are planning extensive advance forces from Donbass and Crimea, as well as a landing maneuver near Odessa and attacks from Belarus. This would enable them to bring the Russian-speaking south-east of Ukraine, as well as the capital Kiev and, above all, the entire Black Sea coast under their control. The remaining trunk of Ukraine would lose access to the sea, but the annexed Crimean peninsula would receive a wide land bridge to Russia and a problem-free water supply from the Dnieper. The Russian occupiers could also get in direct contact with the pro-Russian separatist republic of Transnistria in the Republic of Moldova and in future also put pressure on the European-oriented Moldovan government. With the Ukraine, Russia would also have defeated its western supporters and established itself as Eurasia’s number one military power.
“Putin just wants to bluff”
However, the sources in Washington or Kiev consider the Russian military strike to be by no means certain. And only yesterday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov assured that his country had no aggressive plans. On the contrary, Ukraine is planning aggressive actions against the pro-Russian rebel republics in Donbass. Moscow military expert Viktor Litovkin said it was a Western fake campaign. “Russia will not invade Ukraine until Ukraine starts a major offensive.” The Kiev political scientist Vadim Karassjow also regards an invasion as just a reserve variant of Russia: “Moscow has created this threat scenario in order to put the West under political pressure, as it did in the spring.” Since then, Biden and the West have become weaker, China stronger, the gas price enormous – Putin wants to take advantage of this at the negotiating level. On the other hand, in the event of a major war, he risks new, painful economic sanctions and the end of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Other analysts also believe that Putin is still bluffing. Last week, he asked his own foreign ministry to keep the western states under tension. The aim is to enforce “long-term security guarantees” for Russia.
Source From: Nachrichten
