Poles will elect a new parliament on Sunday. A close race between the ruling PiS and the opposition KO alliance is emerging. Forming a government could be difficult.
The campaign ad shows charred cars and burning houses, then a long column of marching migrants. The camera pans to the 5.5 meter high fence that Poland had built on the EU’s external border with Belarus. “Only the PiS can guarantee security for Poland,” says a sonorous male voice over images of a mother leaning over her gently slumbering baby.
The Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc (PiS, German “Law and Justice”) party, which has been in power for eight years, wants to win voters in the parliamentary elections this Sunday (October 15th) by stirring up sentiment against migrants and the EU asylum policy. That is why Poland, together with Hungary, recently blocked a declaration on a common migration policy at the EU summit in Granada.
But even with this populist campaign, things could be tight for the PiS this time when the 29 million eligible voters decide on the 460 seats in parliament. All surveys indicate that neither the PiS nor the largest opposition alliance, Donald Tusk’s liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO), will be able to form a government on their own. Political observers expect difficult coalition negotiations.
Aid to Ukraine is not up for debate in the election campaign
The Russian attack on neighboring Ukraine has set a lot of things in motion in Poland. The country has taken in almost a million war refugees, and its status as a NATO partner has been greatly enhanced by its close alliance with Kiev. Unlike in Slovakia, where left-wing populist Robert Fico spoke out against military aid to Kiev and recently won the election, no established party in Poland is questioning this foreign policy position.
Recently, Polish-Ukrainian relations were damaged by the dispute over the import and transit of Ukrainian grain. Warsaw announced that it would only fulfill current military aid contracts. PiS leader Kaczynski ordered this change because he wanted to win the votes of angry Polish farmers, explains political scientist Antoni Dudek – but it won’t last. “No matter who wins, this step will be reversed after the election.”
Minority government or three-party coalition
According to the survey, PiS can expect 34 percent of the vote and is therefore expected to be the strongest party. But unlike the past eight years, she will not govern with an absolute majority. Only the ultra-right Konfederacja would be considered as a coalition partner. However, its leader Slawomir Mentzen vowed during the election campaign: “There will be no coalition with the PiS.” PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski would either have to lure enough Konfederacja MPs into his camp with lucrative positions – or lead a minority government tolerated by the ultra-right.
A change of power is also not ruled out. The Citizens’ Coalition (KO) is currently well behind the PiS, with survey results between 28 and 32 percent. Only recently did it bring up to a million people to their feet at a large demonstration in the center of Warsaw. The KO could bring two other parties on board for a coalition government: the left-wing alliance “Lewica” and the conservative, pro-European “Third Way”.
The PiS strongly dominated the election campaign. Among other things, it promotes the expansion of the welfare state, on which a large part of its popularity is based. Only recently, child benefit was increased from the equivalent of 108 euros to 173 euros, pensioners receive a “13th pension”, and those who are particularly in need also receive a “14th pension”. The representatives of the opposition, especially former Prime Minister Tusk, have to constantly assert during the election campaign that they do not want to take away these social benefits from Poles. Both the KO, the Left Alliance and the Third Way promote different solutions to loosen abortion rights, which the PiS has made one of the strictest regulations in Europe.
Possible effects on the relationship with Berlin and Brussels
Since the PiS government demanded 1.3 trillion euros in world war reparations from Germany in a diplomatic note last October, German-Polish relations have fallen to a low point. In this respect, there is also hope for a change of government in Berlin.
Poland’s negative attitude towards European migration policy, on the other hand, is unlikely to change significantly even if the PiS is replaced. The KO recently argued that Poland, together with Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, should form a group that blocks the EU asylum compromise on the mandatory admission of refugees. “I see no chance that Polish politicians will change anything in this regard, because even after the election they will be under pressure from the PiS, which will terrorize all other parties with this issue in the future just as it has done so far.” says political scientist Dudek.
Source: Stern

I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.