The ruling national conservatives are ahead after the parliamentary elections in Poland, but are missing an absolute majority. An alliance of three opposition parties has a chance of governing.
After the election in Poland, an alliance of three pro-European opposition parties gained a majority in parliament and wanted to replace the national conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) after eight years in government. “Poland has won, democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” said Donald Tusk, head of the liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO), in Warsaw.
According to forecasts by the polling institute Ipsos, Tusk’s party can expect 31.6 percent of the vote, making it the second strongest political force. This would give her 163 seats in parliament. The citizens’ coalition could therefore form a coalition with the Christian-conservative Third Way (13 percent) and the left-wing alliance Lewica (8.6 percent). The three-party alliance would have 248 of the total 460 seats and would therefore have a majority in parliament. “On Sunday, October 15th, the bickering and almsgiving in Poland ended and cooperation and investment in our future began,” said Szymon Holownia of the Third Way about the outcome.
Prediction: PiS wins “historically” – but has a problem
According to forecasts, the PiS, which has been in power since 2015, became the strongest force with 36.8 percent of the vote, but clearly missed an absolute majority. “This is a historic victory,” said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Since the end of communism, no party in Poland has managed to win parliamentary elections three times in a row.
Nevertheless, the PiS has a problem: forecasts predicted that it would have 200 seats in the new parliament. Only the ultra-right Konfederacja would be considered as a coalition partner. But according to forecasts, this formation only got 6.2 percent – that would be 12 seats and therefore not enough for a government majority. In addition, the Konfederacja had repeatedly emphasized during the election campaign that it did not want to enter into an alliance with the PiS.
PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said his party would implement its project “regardless of whether we remain in power or go into opposition.” He did not indirectly rule out the possibility that the PiS could lose power.
Highest voter turnout in an election since the end of communism?
A good 29 million eligible voters were able to vote in the election. According to the forecast, voter turnout was 73 percent. This would be the highest figure in an election since the end of communism in Poland. Extrapolations are not common in Poland. The official final result is expected on Tuesday.
Government spokesman Piotr Müller emphasized that it is political practice in Poland that the strongest political force receives the task of forming a government. This order is awarded by President Andrzej Duda, who comes from the ranks of the PiS. Duda had already announced before the election that he would stick to the rule of appointing the strongest faction. He will probably choose Morawiecki for this task.
The politician responsible for forming a government puts together a cabinet. This person is then nominated by the President and must stand for election before Parliament. If the new government does not find a majority in parliament, parliament can propose an alternative cabinet.
Parallel to the parliamentary elections, Poles should also vote in a referendum on, among other things, the EU asylum compromise. According to the forecast, however, only 40 percent of those eligible to vote took part in the referendum. This means that the quorum of at least 51 percent required for validity would not be achieved.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
