Parliamentary election: Opposition in Poland believes in victory: “Back to Europe!”

Rarely has a second place been so celebrated. “I’m the happiest person in the world today,” said Poland’s opposition leader Donald Tusk on election evening in Warsaw. “Poland has won, democracy has won. This is the end of the PiS government.” The national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party has ruled Poland for eight years.

After Sunday’s parliamentary election, three pro-European opposition parties are now confident that they will get a governing majority and that the PiS government will soon be a thing of the past. “Poland will return to Europe on October 15th,” said Robert Biedron from the Lewica left-wing alliance at the election party.

According to initial forecasts, Tusk’s liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO) came in second with 31.6 percent. That would result in 163 MP mandates. The citizens’ coalition could therefore form a coalition with the Christian-conservative Third Way (13 percent) and Lewica (8.6 percent) as junior partners. The three-party alliance would have 248 of the total 460 seats and would therefore have a majority in parliament. “We’re now waiting for the official result, we’ll sit down, talk and we’ll definitely come to an agreement,” an optimistic Tusk told TVN24.

Absolute majority missed

Meanwhile, leaden faces in the PiS party headquarters. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak and others follow the speech of party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski with frozen facial expressions and tense smiles. According to forecasts, the PiS will be the strongest political force with 36.8 percent, but it will miss an absolute majority and will have 200 representatives. And with a coalition partner it will also be difficult.

Unmoved by the hangover atmosphere around him, Kaczynski speaks of a “great success” and swears his followers into the fight: “Regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this project and will not allow Poland will be betrayed.” However, the 74-year-old indirectly admits that he has not ruled out joining the opposition. Because the only coalition partner that would be considered for the PiS would be the ultra-right Konfederacja. But the formation is forecast to have 6.2 percent and 12 MPs – that’s not enough. In addition, the ultra-right always declared during the election campaign: no coalition with the PiS.

The official election results will follow on Tuesday

The election attracted an unusually high level of interest: According to forecasts, voter turnout is 73 percent – that would be the highest figure since the end of communism in 1989. The trend towards a clear East-West division of voters’ will also continues in this parliamentary election: The According to the forecast, liberal conservatives can win over the regions in the west of the country. The KO scores points in an arc from Pomerania to Silesia and along the German-Polish border. The big cities are also their strongholds. The PiS, on the other hand, is once again winning majorities in the south and east of Poland. The electoral commission wants to announce the official election results by Tuesday.

Then the next step follows. The Polish constitution stipulates that the president appoints a politician to form a government. Head of state Andrzej Duda had already indicated before the election that he would stick to the political custom of giving this task to a representative of the strongest political force. The proposed cabinet must then be confirmed by Parliament. If this fails because there is no majority, Parliament can use its majority to form a government. And then the hour of Donald Tusk will probably arrive. But until then, a few more weeks of uncertainty may pass.