In Poland, the opposition sees opportunities for a change of power after the parliamentary election – although the PiS, which has been in power in Poland since 2015, is expected to become the strongest party, according to forecasts.
After the parliamentary elections in Poland, the opposition is expecting an imminent change of power. According to forecasts, the liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO) of former Prime Minister and former EU Council President Donald Tusk is only in second place with 31 percent, but the governing national conservatives missed an absolute majority. With 36.1 percent of the vote, they are likely to become the strongest party.
Three pro-European opposition parties could form the new government if the official final result expected this Tuesday confirms the results of post-election polls by the polling institute Ipsos.
Changes in foreign policy expected
A possible change of power in Warsaw would also bring about a change in Polish foreign policy. The national-conservative PiS is in a constant quarrel with Brussels over a judicial reform, and the relationship with Berlin is also at a low point because of its demands for world war reparations amounting to 1.3 trillion euros. The three opposition parties that could come together under Tusk’s leadership represent a pro-European course and a more conciliatory policy towards Germany.
According to forecasts, PiS will have 196 seats in the new parliament. The majority is 231 of the 460 mandates. The only possible coalition partner would be the ultra-right Konfederacja, but according to forecasts, its 15 mandates would not be enough for a government majority. The final election result will probably not be known until Tuesday.
According to forecasts, the opposition Citizens’ Coalition (KO) has 158 seats. It could form a coalition with the Christian-conservative Third Way (14 percent of the vote) and the left-wing alliance Lewica (8.6 percent). The three-party alliance could count on 249 members and would therefore have a majority in parliament.
The federal government’s coordinator for German-Polish cooperation, Dietmar Nietan, sees the high voter turnout as a sign of the desire for change. “There was a record voter turnout of almost 73 percent. This has never happened before in democratic Poland after the fall of communism. This shows that people want change,” the SPD politician told Bayerischer Rundfunk on Monday.
A lengthy government formation is expected
The balance of power in parliament can still shift by nuances of a few percentage points for smaller parties. A lengthy government formation is expected.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda appealed on Monday to all political camps to wait calmly for the official final result. “I can say in advance: I congratulate those who won this election from the bottom of my heart,” he said. Duda, who is close to the PiS, saw Polish democracy as the clear winner. The “gigantic” voter turnout was an “overwhelming result”.
If today’s opposition with Donald Tusk were to form the future government, the rhetoric and atmosphere would certainly change, said Agnieszka Lada-Konefal from the German Poland Institute of the German Press Agency. “People will be more willing to cooperate – in German-Polish relations as well as in the EU.” At the same time, Lada-Konefal warned against the expectation that everything in Polish politics would change immediately.
OSCE criticizes the ruling party’s media power
According to international election observers, the PiS exploited its media dominance in the parliamentary elections. The public broadcaster “clearly favored the national conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) in its reporting and at the same time displayed open hostility towards the opposition,” criticized the observer team of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Warsaw. In addition, there were overlaps between the PiS’s election messages and the information campaigns of the government and state-affiliated companies.
Source: Stern
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