Election results in Poland fuel hope in Brussels: “Anyone else have goosebumps?”

“Does anyone else have goosebumps? Thank you Poland for giving us back hope,” writes Hungarian MEP Katalin Cseh on X, formerly Twitter. Hope is indeed the feeling that is spreading in Brussels one day after the elections in Poland.

Hope for rapprochement between the EU and Warsaw. Hope “for an end to the lies and hate speech against the neighbors in the EU and the contempt for the democratic competitors,” says Michael Gahler (CDU) on X.

But also hope because, at least for once, the right-wing parties will not emerge stronger from an election. “The shift to the right in Europe is not inevitable. That is a very positive signal,” says Green MEP Daniel Freund in an interview star.

PiS loses the absolute majority

According to forecasts, Mateusz Morawiecki’s national conservative PiS remains the strongest force, but it is expected to lose its absolute majority with 36.1 percent. “The rule of the PiS is over,” commented former Prime Minister and expected election winner Donald Tusk.

Its liberal-conservative citizens’ union received around 31 percent of the vote. Together with the “Third Way” party and the left-wing alliance “Lewika”, Tusk could steer the country’s fortunes in the future – and repair relations between Warsaw and Brussels. At least that was former EU Council President Tusk’s campaign promise to improve the broken relationship with the EU.

Because the relations between the eastern state and the European Union are literally in shambles thanks to Morawiecki’s authoritarian leadership style: the controversial judicial reform, attacks on basic democratic principles, corruption, the curtailment of freedom of the press and freedom of expression, hate speech against migrants and the LGBTQ community, the restrictions Women’s empowerment… The list of problems that the future government will have to address is long.

It was only in July that the EU once again gave Poland a negative report in its report on the rule of law. “No progress, no progress, no progress,” you read there. Neither in the fight against “corruption at the highest levels” nor in “ensuring independent and effective investigations and prosecutions”. Nor when it comes to the “fair, transparent and non-discriminatory” allocation of media licenses.

It’s a lot of money for Poland

Tusk’s promise is not just about a better reputation for Poland within the European community of states, but above all about a lot of money: the Union has allocated around 110 billion euros from the EU budget, in particular the Corona recovery fund and the cohesion fund, in the dispute over the Polish rule of law frozen.

“A government under Donald Tusk will certainly repair the violations of the rule of law,” predicts Green politician Freund, who is dealing with these questions in the Brussels Parliament. Tusk must tackle the reforms quickly, he says. And he is sure: As soon as the first smaller milestones are reached, the EU could release parts of the funds.

Tusk, who comes from the same party family as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, certainly knows how to calm minds and achieve a quick release of important EU funds.

“The opportunities this presents for a government under the possible leadership of Donald Tusk are encouraging – not just for Poland, but for the entire European Union,” says David McAllister (CDU), a member of the EU Parliament, happily. in conversation with star.

“Donald Tusk is an experienced European”

Tusk is no stranger to Brussels. As a former President of the European Council, he knows the processes and practices of the institutions only too well. And he knows most of the heads of state personally. “Donald Tusk is an experienced European and a trustworthy partner. He will approach his country’s future relations with the EU and other European capitals in a more constructive and consensus-oriented manner than the current Polish government,” says McAllister.

In fact, it is to be expected that with him at the helm of Poland the dynamics in the European Council will change significantly. Tusk knows how to negotiate there, how to forge alliances and achieve majorities. One thing is certain: Under him, Poland will once again be sitting at the table as a constructive negotiating partner – and not sulking in the corner.

This gives hope, especially with a view to 2025, when Poland will take over the Council Presidency for six months.

Most recently, the Polish government systematically blocked all major issues in the Council. Ukraine aid, grain imports, EU budget, taxation of corporations, sanctions against Russia. Morawiecki had recently vetoed everything and caused one stalemate after another with his destructive attitude.

Even though Donald Tusk will certainly choose a constructive political style, one should not hope for a 180-degree turn in all policy areas under him. On the migration issue, for example, a Tusk is likely to take a conservative to right-wing stance.

Nevertheless, a change of power in Poland would bring about change – and would particularly harm Victor Orbán. Because in almost all stalemate situations, Hungary and Poland made common cause against the EU. If Poland, an influential partner in terms of population, disappears, Orbán will increasingly find himself alone in the council. The weight of the vote will change; the pressure on Orbán is increasing.

But despite all the joy: Before Donald Tusk can mediate in the council, he must first manage to form a government and set up a coalition program. With six parties, from conservative to liberal to green, this will certainly not be an easy undertaking.

At the same time, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, who, like the outgoing Prime Minister Morawiecki, belongs to the PiS, will be in power for around another year and a half. It remains to be hoped that if there is a change of power at the top of Poland, he will sign the necessary reforms of a more progressive government under Donald Tusk.