Two days after the parliamentary election in Poland, voters and politicians are eagerly awaiting the official final result. The time has come this afternoon – and there are signs of a change in power.
Poland expects the final results of the parliamentary elections to be announced at lunchtime today. According to forecasts based on post-election surveys and partial counts, a change of power is becoming apparent:
According to forecasts, the opposition liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO) of former Prime Minister and former EU Council President Donald Tusk is only in second place with 31 percent, but the national conservatives of the Law and Justice party (PiS), which have been in power for eight years, also missed the absolute majority if they are expected to become the strongest party with 36.1 percent of the vote.
Noticeably high voter turnout
According to forecasts, the KO would have 158 mandates. It could form a coalition with the Christian-conservative Third Way (14 percent) and the left-wing alliance Lewica (8.6 percent). The three-party alliance could count on 249 MPs and have a majority in parliament if the official final result confirms the results of post-election surveys by the polling institute Ipsos. The PiS was predicted to win 196 seats in the new parliament.
The majority is 231 of the 460 mandates. The only possible coalition partner is the ultra-right Konfederacja, whose 15 mandates are, according to forecasts, not enough for a government majority.
The balance of power in parliament can still shift by nuances of a few percentage points for smaller parties. A lengthy government formation is expected. What was striking was the high voter turnout of 73.9 percent. President Andrzej Duda spoke of an “overwhelming result”. It was the highest turnout since the end of communism in 1989. Observers also see the high voter turnout as a sign that the population wants change.
Permanent clinch with Brussels
A possible change of power in Warsaw would also bring about a change in Polish foreign policy. The national-conservative PiS is in a constant quarrel with Brussels over a judicial reform, and the relationship with Berlin is also at a low point because of its demands for world war reparations amounting to 1.3 trillion euros. The three opposition parties that could come together under Tusk’s leadership represent a pro-European course and a more conciliatory policy towards Germany.
The leader of the Polish Green Party, Urszula Zielinska, sees the current opposition on the way to forming a stable government in Warsaw. “We in the opposition agree on the most important points. We will restore the rule of law,” she told the editorial network Germany (RND). The PiS will try to divide the opposition parties in order to get a majority by any means possible. “But she won’t succeed.”
Barley: “Signal to the other autocrats in the EU”
EU Parliament Vice President Katarina Barley (SPD) sees the expected result of the parliamentary elections according to the forecasts as a strengthening of democracy and the rule of law in the EU. “This election is also a signal to the other autocrats in the EU. In the end, the rule of law prevails,” said the SPD politician to the “Stuttgarter Zeitung” and the “Stuttgarter Nachrichten”.
Without the PiS government in the European Council, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an important ally, said Barley, who is going into the European elections next year as the SPD’s top candidate. “In current infringement proceedings, he could no longer count on support from Warsaw. That would be a decisive step towards a stronger rule of law in Europe.”
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
