According to security expert Chistian Mölling, the war in Ukraine and the conflicts in the Middle East could develop into a conflagration. He also warns that the images from the Gaza Strip could fuel unrest in Germany.
According to security expert Christian Mölling, the conflict in the Middle East could become part of the conflict over Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Mölling said on Friday in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation” that we “could very quickly be in a situation where we are no longer dealing with two separate conflicts.” He pointed out the danger that new actors would try to gain advantages in the Middle East conflict – this could lead to major collateral damage. “You can have a whole mass of actors relatively quickly,” said the research director of the German Council on Foreign Relations. “There are several fuses that can be lit.”
It is important that the Americans’ deterrence works and that potential parties to the conflict such as Iran hold back in view of the risks. Mölling emphasized that the Americans and Russians were not seeking direct confrontation in the region. However, the US operations against targets in Syria showed how close the armed forces of both sides are. “The danger that there will be a miscalculation somewhere, that something will go wrong – that is growing,” he said, referring to the many trouble spots in the region. “You can’t be naive and say that everything will be fine.”
War in the Middle East is an “aha moment”
According to the security expert, Germany is currently experiencing an “aha moment” – namely, it is becoming clear how directly the conflict in the Middle East affects our domestic policy. According to his impression, the anti-Semitic demonstrations are currently subsiding, but this could quickly change again if new images show the suffering of civilians in Gaza. “That is of course one of Hamas’s goals, to have these images, because they see that they are causing problems right at home,” said Mölling.
The Germans’ distance from the Russian war against Ukraine is much greater than from the events in the Middle East. On the other hand, with regard to Israel, Germany is currently not faced with such difficult decisions as it did after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when weapons were to be delivered to a war zone.
Difficult debates about Ukraine
Mölling expected difficult debates about the Ukraine course both in the USA and in the European Union. In the USA, the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, must prove “that he is not Joe Biden’s poodle”. “I think you definitely have to expect that it will be very rough,” said Mölling. “Domestic policy determines foreign policy”
For the European Union, it remains the case that “foreign policy is negotiated by consensus.” This becomes difficult “if you have one or two people – Slovakia and Hungary – where you don’t know how deep they are in whose pockets.” It is positive that most of the military aid to Ukraine is handled through bilateral agreements that no third party can block.
Source: Stern
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