Robert Habeck: The Resurrection of Robert H.

Maybe Robert Habeck can hardly believe his own eyes. If the economics minister opened the social platform “X” on Thursday, then he could read about the “anchor that the country needs,” about a “different league,” about the qualities of a chancellor.

And yes, that means Robert Habeck, Green Economics Minister and Vice Chancellor. On Wednesday evening, his team uploaded a video in which he gave an emotional assessment of Hamas’ attack on Israel, condemned hatred of Jews, and declared the protection of Israel to be a reason of state in a way that sticks with you, that grabs you and lacks the usual platitudes. An appeal to the entire nation not to lose its compass, if you will. Even the opposition is enthusiastic.

Habeck is no longer used to that. The last time we talked about his disenchantment was when he gambled away with the heating law. His popularity ratings plummeted, he had to endure insults and insults, and for many he suddenly became a kind of enemy. The Economics Minister has had a rather difficult year in the coalition, in the party and also in public perception. But now Habeck love seems to have broken out again. A video as a liberation, as a sign of his political resurrection? Can this be? It’s not just the video. He has been stabilizing for weeks, first in the background and now publicly again. But one after anonther.

Over time the difficulties came

Habeck actually started out in government as the most popular politician and remained that way for months. He was someone who explained his decisions in a way that was understandable to many. He acted pragmatically, sometimes going against his own party reasons when it came to securing energy supplies after Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression on Ukraine.

But over time the difficulties came. He had to admit deficiencies in the so-called gas levy. The discussion about continued operation of the nuclear power plants cost him sympathy. With the so-called Building Energy Act, his reputation plummeted. He was quickly portrayed as someone who would like to personally descend into the basement to rip out people’s oil and gas heaters.

The tone was set and moved between “heating hammer” and “atomic bomb for our country”. And Habeck made mistakes, serious ones at that. The fact that the bill did not take social equalization into account from the start was such a mistake. From then on there was nothing more to be gained for the Minister of Economic Affairs – the law only passed the Bundestag in a greatly weakened form.

In what was already a turbulent time for him, an affair involving personal connections and nepotism in his ministry was added. In the center: State Secretary Patrick Graichen, who recommended his best man for the job at the head of the German Energy Agency, which reports to the ministry. Habeck tried for a long time to hold on to Graichen, because he was not only seen as the architect of the heating law, but also as the person who had averted the gas crisis in the winter. In the end he had to fire him. A low point. The economics minister? Badly battered.

Habeck: “That shouldn’t actually happen to me”

From then on he avoided the public more, spoke to his confidants and is said to have thought a lot about the government’s course and himself. Step one of his comeback strategy: He only sought limited blame for the mess surrounding the heating law with others, but above all with himself. He misjudged the mood in society, he said in an August interview with “Zeit” about the Building Energy Act. And: “This shouldn’t actually happen to me.” He suddenly publicly purified himself. That stood out.

Step two: His position within the party was also consolidated again after the summer. The decisive factor for this was an incident that actually duped the Vice Chancellor. After the summer break in the cabinet, the Green Family Minister Lisa Paus refused to approve a law that had already been approved by Habeck. That sparked a leadership debate. Who is actually in charge in the party?

There is an informal leadership committee, the so-called round of six. In addition to Habeck, these are Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the party leaders Ricarda Lang and Omid Nouripour and the parliamentary group leaders Katharina Dröge and Britta Haßelmann. They agree on the important questions, but – as the past has shown – they often do not agree.

Another major project pushed forward

After the Paus incident, numerous powerful Greens demonstratively gathered behind Habeck and publicly made their support clear to him. Even Baerbock, who prevailed against Habeck in the fight for the Green Party’s candidacy for chancellor in 2021, said in an interview when asked where the center of power was in the party: “With the Vice Chancellor, Robert Habeck, of course.” And the minister himself is said to have made it clear internally: My word in the government must stand – otherwise we don’t need to continue.

Step three: He started creating new content. Since the debacle over the heating law, the Green Party has pushed forward another major project in his ministry quite quietly. An industrial strategy was already announced in the coalition agreement, and Habeck presented it at the end of October. This is intended to strengthen Germany as a location and ensure greater economic security.

Even though the paper has not yet been agreed in the federal government and is likely to cause conflicts with the SPD and FDP, for example regarding a subsidized electricity price for large industrial companies, it received a lot of praise from business. The Federal Association of German Industry spoke of a “clear commitment by the Minister of Economics to industry as the basis of Germany as a business location”.

The German Economic Institute in Cologne does not see the strategy as a “big liberation move”. But it also says: “Praise where praise is due.” With the new industrial strategy, Habeck is proving that he understands the concerns of companies in Germany and takes them seriously. After the experience with the heating law, things could have gone worse.

So there they are – some initial signs that the latest video could not only be a flash in the pan, but also a lasting turnaround for Habeck. That he has overcome the low point and can look forward more powerfully. Step four, if you will.

It remains to be seen how sustainable the steps towards resurrection are; politics is fast-moving. But since this week it has been clear: Habeck is a force to be reckoned with again. With the Greens and beyond.