Joe Biden and Xi Jinping: Cautious rapprochement in times of crisis

When Joe Biden meets Xi Jinping this Wednesday, nothing will be left to chance. From the moment China’s head of state enters the room to the exact timing of the handshake, every minute the two powerful men spend together will be perfectly choreographed. This meeting has been working behind the scenes for too long and the tensions between the two superpowers are too great.

It has been almost a year to the day since Biden and Xi last looked into each other’s eyes on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali. A year of radio silence that has severely tested relations between the United States and China.

Washington cannot yet forget the Chinese spy balloon that floated over the East Coast in February. In Beijing, Biden’s “dictator” comment with regard to Xi has been burned into the memory. Not to mention China’s increasing aggression towards Taiwan and the trade dispute over US restrictions on technology exports. More explosive is hardly possible.

So what can be expected when Biden and Xi meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco? Both sides agree on one thing in advance: to dampen the hope of concrete results.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping: It’s about smoothing things over

There was a time when summits between China and the US resulted in stated agreements. They said: Keep North Korea in check. Prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Consensual climate goals. Joint fight against terrorism. Those days are over. How shattered the relationship between the two economic and military powers has become was already evident in the different communications in advance of the meeting. Just last week, Chinese Ambassador to the US Xie Feng made it clear that Xi would seek reassurance from Biden that the United States “does not seek a new Cold War.”

The announcement by Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan sounds conciliatory at first glance: the US President will endeavor to resume dialogue between the armed forces of both countries. Such communication channels are necessary “to prevent errors, misjudgments or misunderstandings,” said Sullivan. The White House also repeats like a mantra how important it is to act “responsibly” in the “competition” between the two countries. “We are in competition with China, but we are not looking for conflict, confrontation and a new Cold War,” it said when the meeting was officially announced. “We want to manage competition responsibly.” Through “intense diplomacy,” as Sullivan emphasizes.

But what’s interesting is what isn’t said.

In contrast to their earlier wish, Biden’s advisors have refrained from using the phrase “bring guard rails to the relationship.” – something the Chinese rejected as a new American style of “containment.” The request to give a “ground” to the relationship, which is in a downward spiral, was also deleted. And what Beijing thinks of the “competition” formulation also quickly became clear. “China is not afraid of competition, but we are against describing China-US relations as competition,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said 48 hours before the meeting. Tuee US should not try to “shape or change China.” A warning, not a request.

However, the fact that both sides have an interest in reducing tensions has become clear from the lively diplomatic exchanges in recent months. After a canceled visit in February – keyword spy balloon – Antony Blinken traveled to Beijing in June as the first US Secretary of State in five years. At the end of October, Biden welcomed Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the White House, the highest-ranking Chinese politician in almost five years.

Trade relations, wars and Taiwan on the agenda

Since the beginning of his presidency, Biden has repeatedly emphasized the importance of cooperation with China on major international challenges. And the catalog of crises is long.

At the top are the strained trade relations between the two largest economies. Biden himself had imposed new restrictions on the export of advanced technology to China in the name of national security – to the indignation of Beijing. Now, ahead of the meeting, American officials have taken pains to emphasize that the United States and China are competitors rather than zero-sum rivals. “We have a trade relationship with China worth $700 billion. The vast majority – “99 percent of it has nothing to do with export controls,” US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo told CNN. The fact that Xi is holding a luxury banquet with leading American businessmen as part of the APEC summit at least shows that his country too is open to foreign companies.

Aside from trade and competition issues, the meeting will address the two major conflicts that are currently dominating the world agenda: the war between Israel and the radical Islamic Hamas and the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Beijing has good trade and diplomatic relations with Iran, a country that supports Hamas and other militant groups in the Middle East. This is a thorn in the side of the US government. Biden will emphasize to Xi that the United States will respond to any expansion of the war caused by Iran.

Dealing with Taiwan is particularly tricky: China sees the democratically governed island as part of its territory and wants to reincorporate it by force if necessary. Washington, on the other hand, is an important ally of Taiwan and therefore wants to warn Xi against interfering in Taiwan’s presidential election in two months. “We have very serious concerns about election interference in Taiwan,” said a US official. “And of course we want to convey that message again.” Climate change and the fight against drug trafficking are also on the discussion list as areas of potential cooperation.

A first step

Biden and Xi have known each other for more than a decade. Since Biden’s inauguration in 2021, the powerful men have held hours-long talks but have met in person only once. Xi told a US congressional delegation last month that there are “a thousand reasons to improve US-China relations, but no reason to worsen them.” The kind of thing you say when a relationship is at its lowest point.

After months of tension, a major breakthrough is unlikely. Also given the sensitive nature of the issue. Instead, the fact that the meeting is taking place at all is seen as a positive sign in Washington. Political observers agree that the meeting will take place in an atmosphere of mutual mistrust. And yet both leaders are united by the certainty that they can only leave the table stronger together.

“The Chinese-American relationship still faces major challenges and there is still a long way to go to stabilize and improve relations,” said China’s Ambassador Xie shortly before the meeting.

This Wednesday it is up to Biden and Xi to take the first step.

Sources: “”, “”, “”, “”, with Reuters and AFP material