Middle East conflict: Two-state solution: Why has it never worked so far?

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has claimed more victims this year than ever before in its decades-old history.

Israel has suffered the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust; according to the Hamas health authority, more than 12,300 Palestinians have been killed in the ensuing Gaza war. This is by far more than in all previous wars in the conflict. In light of this catastrophic outbreak of violence and indescribable suffering, calls for a peaceful solution to the conflict are once again coming to the fore.

Call for a two-state solution

The model that is increasingly being brought into play again is the so-called two-state solution. This means an independent Palestinian state that lives peacefully side by side with Israel. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz referred to this regulation again at the weekend and expressed the hope that after a victory over the terrorist Hamas, the chances of peaceful coexistence between two states could be more realistic than in recent years.

US President Joe Biden also wrote in an opinion piece in the Washington Post: “This much is clear: a two-state solution is the only way to ensure the long-term security of both the Israeli and Palestinian people.” Even if it seems at the moment that this future has never been further away, “the crisis has made it more urgent than ever.”

Why is there still no peace in the Middle East?

There have been repeated intensive efforts to achieve a peaceful agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, especially from the USA. US presidents like George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, and even Donald Trump, invested a lot, but ultimately failed to find a lasting compromise. There were repeated disruptive maneuvers from both sides.

Clinton said in retrospect that he had truly “killed himself” trying to help the Palestinians gain their own state. “I had a deal that they rejected,” he said in 2016. “It would have given them the whole Gaza Strip, 96 to 97 percent of the West Bank with land compensation in Israel.”

The last known offer to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas came in 2008 from then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. According to media reports, he also offered Abbas almost the entire West Bank as well as the Arab quarters of East Jerusalem and the Old City under international control. Abbas later said that Olmert had urged him to sign without letting him study the map shown. Shortly afterwards, Olmert had to resign from office due to corruption allegations.

Ultimately, the negotiations failed because both sides were unable to agree on the sticking points of the conflict: the future border, the Palestinian refugee issue, the status of Jerusalem, the settlements and the distribution of resources, especially water.

Hopeful beginning

The signing of the Oslo Peace Accords in 1993 was considered the most hopeful time for peace efforts. The joint declaration of principles led to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority. It is responsible for supplying the population in the areas it administers. However, this regulation was originally only intended for a period of five years – long-term hopes for the Palestinians to have their own state have remained unfulfilled to this day. There have been no serious negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians since 2014. Support for a two-state solution then fell – on both sides.

Settlement expansion as an obstacle to peace settlement

Since conquering the West Bank in the Six-Day War in 1967, Israel has systematically expanded its disputed settlements there. In 1993, around 110,000 Israeli settlers lived in the West Bank. Today the number has risen to around half a million, including East Jerusalem there are as many as 700,000. The settlers live among three million Palestinians. The United Nations has classified these settlements as a major obstacle to a peace settlement because they hardly leave any contiguous territory for the Palestinians.

Violent attacks by settlers on Palestinians have intensified significantly during the six-week Gaza war. Palestinians also repeatedly complain about massive restrictions on their daily life due to the Israeli occupation, which has been ongoing for 56 years.

Hamas repeatedly torpedoes the peace process with violence

Since the beginning of the peace process, the Islamist terrorist organization Hamas has repeatedly aimed to torpedo it with bloody attacks on Israelis. It has no interest in peaceful coexistence, but rather wants to fuel the conflict. Its ultimate goal is the establishment of an Islamic state throughout historic Palestine; Hamas wants to destroy the state of Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was elected for the first time in 1996 against the backdrop of a wave of bloody attacks by Hamas. His predecessor, Izchak Rabin, was murdered by a Jewish fanatic who wanted to prevent further territorial concessions to the Palestinians.

Critics have repeatedly accused Netanyahu of having tolerated or even encouraged the rise of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. As a rival to the more moderate Fatah of President Mahmoud Abbas, it served to divide the Palestinian people in order to prevent a state of Palestine. Many right-wing Israelis consider a Palestinian state to be an unacceptable security risk for Israel.

The “Jerusalem Post” reported in 2019, citing a source in Netanyahu’s Likud party, that Netanyahu had justified the approval of the transfer of Qatari millions in money to Hamas with this strategy. Anyone who is against a Palestinian state should be in favor of the money transfer, he said. However, these funds ultimately helped Hamas turn the Gaza Strip into a weapon-filled fortress.

Can the Authority rule Gaza after the war?

Biden is now campaigning for a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority to take back control of the Gaza Strip after the war. Hamas forcibly expelled them from there in 2007. However, Netanyahu vehemently rejects this. In its current form, the Authority is unable to take control of the Gaza Strip, he argues.

Even before the war, polls showed that more than half of Palestinians supported a return to armed insurgency. Assassins are celebrated by large sections of Palestinian society as heroes in the fight against Israeli oppressors.

It is Israel’s job, “after a victory, to ensure that Gaza can never again threaten the citizens of Israel,” said Netanyahu. They will not agree to a new leadership “that supports terrorism, pays terrorists and their families, and raises their children to murder Jews and wipe out the State of Israel.”

However, it is uncertain whether Netanyahu will be able to remain as head of government after the war given the colossal failure on October 7th. According to the latest polls, the party of Benny Gantz, minister in the war cabinet, is currently by far the strongest faction ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud. Last year, Gantz spoke out in favor of an independent Palestinian “unity” – although not a complete state.