Money is tight, and so is time. Nevertheless, the traffic light wants to bring the budget for 2024 to the target this year. Will the coalition committee bring clarity this evening – or even more conflict?
No need to worry, we’ll handle it. That’s how the Chancellor sees it, that’s how he wants it to be understood. Budget crisis or not, Olaf Scholz demonstrates confidence. This Wednesday evening could already show whether this confidence turns out to be justified or turns out to be just optimism.
The traffic light leaders are expected to meet for the coalition committee at 8:30 p.m. Crisis meeting, again. And the potential for conflict is enormous.
The Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling has shattered the budget plans of the SPD, Greens and FDP, and there are big question marks surrounding the coalition’s billion-dollar investment projects. A lot of things now have to be rethought and the federal budget for 2024 has to be completely reorganized. The traffic light actually wanted to pass it in the Bundestag this week. Nothing will come of it. But when then?
Despite all his confidence, the Chancellor was unable to give an answer to this in his government statement on Tuesday. Two weeks after the explosion in Karlsruhe, central questions remain unanswered. The biggest sticking point: How much money the Bundestag can mobilize for the traffic light projects. A long night could lie ahead for the coalition leaders.
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The initial situation, roughly outlined: The FDP wants to set priorities in the budget, i.e. savings. The SPD and the Greens, on the other hand, want the Bundestag to declare another emergency for the coming year. Then the traffic light could legally bypass the debt brake and take out far more loans. A compromise line? Not yet foreseeable.
Nevertheless, Scholz assured the Bundestag that no citizen would have to worry about cuts, whether in housing benefits or pensions. Support for Ukraine or against the energy crisis is also unlikely to diminish. And the modernization of the country should by no means be neglected. The message: No need to worry. However, the Chancellor remained very vague about how all of this would be financed – in accordance with the constitution.
“It will take several rounds for this”
Katja Mast expects intensive conversations, which probably means something like: It could also be uncomfortable. The SPD parliamentary group manager dampened expectations on Wednesday morning. In any case, the “overall package” that the coalition wants to present will “certainly not be available by this evening”. So there is still a need for discussion about how the budget gap for 2024 – which Mast estimates at a “double-digit, higher billion amount” – should be closed.
Nevertheless, Social Democrats (and Greens) are pushing for the 2024 budget to be achieved this year. They want to avoid so-called interim budgeting, which is common in election years. Then the federal government could only cover ongoing costs, for example due to legal obligations. When it comes to new spending, Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) would have to explicitly raise his thumb. But it is already lowering it now when the debt rules are fundamentally questioned.
The schedule is ambitious if the 2024 budget is actually to be approved in the Bundestag this year. “With the good will of all actors, including the Federal Council, it is possible,” says SPD parliamentary group leader Mast. So far only one week of meetings is planned for December. A special session week – before Christmas – is therefore considered likely.
SPD budget politician Andreas Schwarz is also not expecting a solution this evening. “It will take several rounds,” he said star. However, Schwarz expects the group to clarify the timeline until adoption – and how the coalition as a whole wants to deal with the verdict. “The SPD would like to prevent a provisional budget management with the known restrictions,” said the SPD man. This would contribute to greater clarity and less uncertainty.
The pressure on the traffic lights is great, time is short – and a way out of the budget crisis is not yet foreseeable. What topics are still being discussed at the coalition committee? The budget for 2024 offers enough to talk about “for a full-length program,” says Mast.
Source: Stern
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