Extremism: Precautionary arrests show Islamist terrorist threat

Three arrests within a week. Three young or juvenile suspects. The suspected attack targets: Christmas markets. The first indication of possible terrorist scenarios came from abroad. What’s going on there?

Terror experts in the security authorities assume that there is a connection with the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which is sometimes perceived differently by Muslims and Arabs than by the German majority society. This does not necessarily mean the brutal terrorist attack orchestrated by Hamas in which more than 1,200 people were killed and around 240 hostages were taken in Israel on October 7th. Rather, the Israeli military offensive in the Gaza Strip that began a few days later is perceived as disproportionate, which terrorist groups looking for sympathizers and assassins are trying to exploit for their own purposes.

Terror propaganda, which had already used the Koran burnings in Sweden as an opportunity to incite against everything “Western”, is now actively serving the “narrative of the supposedly necessary “protection of the Al-Aqsa Mosque” in Jerusalem and the fight against Israel and Judaism.” said this week in a statement from the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. In doing so, terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda or the offshoots of the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS) sometimes have to make considerable ideological contortions, as they have often vilified Hamas, which emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood, in the past as being too lax and beyond their own Salafist teachings.

It was clear immediately after the brutal attack by the Islamist Hamas on October 7th that developments in the Middle East would have a direct impact on the security situation in Germany. Intensive discussions were already taking place between those responsible that weekend. Protection concepts for Jewish institutions and other possible targets were reconsidered, and known Islamist threats were given greater focus again. A so-called special evaluation was initiated.

Hamas and network Samidoun banned

In this context, Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) also refers to the banning orders against Hamas and the Palestinian network Samidoun, which she issued on November 2nd. Terrorism experts do not expect that people who are attributed to these two groups will carry out attacks in Germany. The ministry says that the measures possible through such a ban to prevent so-called propaganda activities by Hamas and Samidoun, online and offline, would already have an effect.

As a rule, it takes more than that for individual perpetrators or small groups who become radicalized within a short period of time to turn solidarity with the predominantly Muslim Palestinians into an aggressive, militant attitude, which then leads to preparations for a terrorist attack. Uprooting, a self-perceived failure, a separation or similar personal frustration are often added.

“Soft target”: Lots of people, no entry controls

According to the security authorities, the fact that both the two young people who were picked up by the police in North Rhine-Westphalia and Brandenburg on Monday and the Iraqi taken into custody in Lower Saxony probably wanted to go to Christmas markets have nothing to do with the Christian background of these events. Rather, it’s probably about heading for a “soft target”, i.e. a place where many people come together without entry controls.

In addition, it may not be possible to rule out that the three suspects wanted to imitate the terrorist attack on December 19, 2016. At that time, a rejected asylum seeker from Tunisia drove a stolen truck into the Christmas market on Breitscheidplatz at the Berlin Memorial Church. As a result of the attack, 13 people died.

The fact that this cruel act is still present in the minds of many Islamists was shown, for example, after the Brokstedt assassination attempt. The public prosecutor accuses the defendant Ibrahim A. of stabbing a 17-year-old and her boyfriend, who was two years older, on January 25, 2023 near the Brokstedt train station. Two other women and two men suffered serious injuries. After the Palestinian’s arrest, it became known that he had previously made positive references to the Berlin attacker during a stay in a Hamburg prison.

France raises terror alert level

Germany is not the only one affected. The analysis by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution states: “Terrorist attacks have taken place in various neighboring European countries in recent weeks, some of whose perpetrators made explicit reference to the Middle East conflict.” Against this background, several EU states – including France – had recently increased their national terror alert levels.

The “Middle East confrontation and its effects on Germany” is also on the agenda of the autumn conference of federal and state interior ministers that Berlin is hosting next week. The President of the Central Council of Jews, Josef Schuster, and Israel’s Ambassador, Ron Prosor, are expected to attend.

In the discussions on the planned reform of nationality law, representatives of the traffic light coalition had emphasized in recent days that the bill presented by the cabinet explicitly mentions that someone who has been convicted of an anti-Semitic crime cannot be naturalized. Saxony-Anhalt’s Interior Minister, Tamara Zieschang, would like to go one step further. She suggests that the naturalization tests “be supplemented with questions about the special responsibility for Jewish life in Germany and Israel’s right to exist.” In an interview with the German Press Agency, the CDU politician said: “If anti-Semitic attitudes are present, naturalization should be refused.”