COP28: Climate club instead of budget crisis: Scholz at the climate conference

For the Chancellor there are actually important things to sort out at home. The 2024 federal budget blew up in Olaf Scholz’s face because of a ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court. Together with Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, he now has to scrape together 17 billion euros as quickly as possible to plug the hole. Scholz still doesn’t want to miss the climate conference with heads of state and government from 170 countries.

Early in the morning, shortly after 7 a.m., he takes off for Dubai, where the so-called COP28 is taking place this year – with a record number of around 97,000 participants. The evening before, he pored over the budget plans with Lindner (FDP) and Habeck (Greens) in the Chancellery until late in the evening. To be continued – after returning at the weekend.

Shortened stay

Scholz shortened his stay in Dubai by around eight hours to 20 because of the budget crisis. But he didn’t want to give up completely. The most important point for him in Dubai: the climate club. Scholz founded it a year and a half ago at the G7 summit in Elmau, Bavaria, as a group of particularly ambitious states in the fight against climate change. In the afternoon he declared the loose association of 35 countries and the EU to be fully operational: “Now we can get started!” he says.

The common goal is to convert industrial processes to be greenhouse-neutral and to decouple economic growth from climate-damaging emissions. The problem: Some of the largest producers of climate-damaging greenhouse gases are not members of the club: China, Russia, India or Brazil.

The day before, Germany received a lot of praise because the Federal Republic and the host country pledged $100 million each for a new fund that is intended to compensate for climate damage in poor countries. It was like a starting signal, further commitments followed.

How does Germany stand when it comes to climate protection?

Germany has long been a “good guy” when it comes to international climate protection, it is said with pride from the delegation in Dubai, known in UN jargon as COP28. But how does Germany actually stand when it comes to climate protection? The balance sheet could be summarized as follows: There are many gaps and construction sites, but globally, many countries are performing worse. Concrete:

According to the Federal Environment Agency, around 746 million tons of climate-damaging greenhouse gases were released in Germany last year – at least 40.4 percent less than in 1990. But according to the Climate Protection Act, the numbers must be reduced by a whopping 65 percent by 2030, and binding climate neutrality must then be achieved by 2045 at the latest. This requires a rapid increase in speed, with around six percent fewer emissions year after year. But: Since 2010, Germany has not even achieved an average of two percent.

Things are particularly bad on the roads. It is the only sector that actually emitted more greenhouse gases in 2022 compared to the previous year – despite high fuel prices and a 9-euro ticket. No wonder: despite all the alarm calls, the number of cars in this country continues to rise. There are currently 48.8 million cars – and only one in 50 of them is an electric car.

Carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants in this country have also recently risen sharply – an indirect consequence of high gas prices and the energy crisis due to the war in Ukraine. Massive amounts of energy also had to be exported, especially to France, where half of all nuclear power plants were not connected to the grid due to repairs.

Internationally, many are much worse

Germany is making progress in climate protection, albeit far too slowly. However, this means that the Federal Republic is not in a bad position compared to other countries – because many states do much less. Because 139 countries worldwide are currently emitting more greenhouse gases than in 2005 – some even twice as much as the NewClimate Institute determined. A negative example is China: in 2005, the People’s Republic released 5.8 billion tons of CO2, but in 2021 it was already 11.5 billion – a good 30 percent of all emissions worldwide. In terms of per capita emissions, China is now at the same level as Germany – but still far behind countries such as the USA, Australia, Canada and Russia.

In mid-November, climate expert Niclas Höhne from the New Climate Institute concluded that there was no sign of a radical change globally. He based it on new UN calculations: Even if all climate protection promises are kept – which many doubt – emissions in 2030 are likely to be only two percent below the 2019 level. In order to reach the 1.5 degree global warming target, they would have to be halved by then.

German performance overall “unsatisfactory”

The NewClimate Institute also regularly publishes the widely respected analysis tool “Climate Action Tracker”, which regularly assesses the climate policies of more than 40 countries. Despite individual progress, the experts classify Germany’s performance overall as “inadequate”: It seems as if the federal government has given up on its own climate protection target for 2030. For example, it is inappropriate that Germany does not implement even simple measures such as a general speed limit on motorways. At the end of August, a federal government projection report coordinated by the Federal Environment Agency showed that the climate targets for 2030 and 2045 are “at risk” without additional measures – which does not really fit with the government’s self-praise.

The Climate Action Tracker highlights positively, even in international comparison, that the federal government has systematically removed obstacles to the expansion of renewable energies. When it comes to solar energy, it is on the way to exceeding its own expansion targets, but not yet when it comes to wind energy.