Ukraine: How the US Republicans are using the billions in aid as a means of pressure

analysis

The fact that Ukrainians are fighting for freedom on credit is nothing new. But now the promises made fervently by the majority of Western heads of state over almost two years are approaching a la “No matter what the cost” to their expiration date.

Kiev is running out of money and conservative Washington is running out of patience. On Wednesday, Senate Republicans defeated a $106 billion aid package, much of which was earmarked for Ukraine. Only 49 senators voted for it, 60 should have been.

US President Joe Biden found the right-wing interference “astonishing” and, of course, dangerous. The conservative senators’ refusal is a “gift” for Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. Now, no doesn’t always mean no at the U.S. Capitol – at least that’s how it used to be. In fact, the conservatives could be softened if they get their way – that is, a massively stricter border policy.

However, the bargaining makes it clear: Ukraine’s freedom has long since become a pawn in a new dimension of American power poker.

Billion-dollar support – a bargain

The fact that the Ukrainians held out for so long is also due to the billions of dollars in aid from their allies. Especially from the USA, by far the largest donor, which gave almost 77 billion euros to Ukraine by the end of July.

The resistance of the Ukrainians is now increasingly dependent on these funds. The most recently promised aid fell by almost 90 percent between August and October 2023 compared to the same period last year, reports the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. If the flow of money from Washington were to dry up, the consequences for Ukraine would be catastrophic. Without fresh money from the USA, the reconquest of the occupied territories would be “impossible”. There would then be a “great risk of losing this war,” Andriy Yermak, the head of the Kiev presidential office, made clear on Wednesday.

According to Biden, Republicans are prepared to “literally bring Ukraine to its knees on the battlefield and endanger our national security in the process.” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s forecast was also bleak this week. Now the clock is not ticking the same loudly in everyone’s ears: According to the New York Times, Pentagon officials contradict the White House. The current balance is enough to keep Ukraine burning throughout the winter – the remaining almost five billion dollars just have to be divided accordingly.

There is “no magic pot of funding to bridge this moment. We are out of money – and almost out of time,” said Shalanda Young, director of the National Budget Office, clear.

Republicans want to swap: Ukraine aid for stricter border policy

With the fall of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House of Representatives, the political climate in the USA finally broke the two-degree mark. Realpolitik moves towards betrayal. From a Republican perspective, giving in on the Ukraine issue is still theoretically feasible, but in practice it is too expensive for the Democrats. The conservatives want their nod to be gilded with a blank slate when it comes to border protection.

Many Democrats fundamentally recognize that immigration policy is in need of reform. Accordingly, Biden had promised the stubborn conservatives a “significant concession.” His Democratic majority leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, also verbally opened his arms. In the end, the almost submissive willingness to compromise didn’t help. Ultimately, the demands of the right were so extreme that the Democrats had to bend ideologically.

Of course, the Republicans knew that the left’s willingness to talk couldn’t possibly go that far. But now they can say: It wasn’t our fault! Of course, the bosses of the Grand Old Party don’t want to hear about blackmail. On the contrary: Democrats would apparently “rather allow Russia to trample on a sovereign country in Europe than do what is necessary to enforce America’s own sovereign borders,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Combined friendship – Kiev and Jerusalem in one aid package

“Only” 14 of the 106 billion dollars in the aid package were supposed to go to Israel as support in the fight against Hamas. The fact that friendship with Kiev and Jerusalem is currently only available as a combination package is met with little approval among progressive democrats and all-time right-wingers alike – for different reasons, of course. On the right, Israel wants to arm itself without having to fire a single bullet from Kiev; on the left, in view of the thousands of Palestinian victims, this is exactly what they want to avoid.

The left-wing veteran Bernie Sanders even voted against the draft and, in a roundabout way, joined the right. Although Sanders is an independent on paper, his views generally align with the Democrats. But Sandersian bigamy is the smallest problem for the Democrats.

Hoping for New Year’s resolutions?

What happens next? It is unlikely that elephant and donkey will come to an agreement this year. However, the dispute over money becomes even more cerebral in the spring: part of the hard-fought transition budget expires on January 19th and the rest on February 2nd. Then the evil specter of Shutdown once again haunts the Capitol corridors. The fact that this interim solution came together at all was because the parties postponed the contentious issue of Ukraine. Ukraine literally cannot afford this again.

But postponed is not canceled. At least that is what we hope from the Ukrainian perspective. The fact is: Failure to provide assistance is not a criminal offense in the USA. The Republicans know this too.

Sources: ““; ” “; ““; DPA; AFP