Great Britain: Tory “civil war” over asylum law: Sunak between the fronts

29 and 57 are the numbers Rishi Sunak has to fear. If 29 of 350 MPs from his Conservative Party vote against his new asylum law in Parliament on Tuesday or 57 abstain, the plan will fail – and the British Prime Minister’s political fate will probably be sealed. “He would have to give in to one side of his divided party, but that would anger the other side,” said political scientist Mark Garnett of the German Press Agency. The party would probably overthrow Sunak – or the head of government would call new elections earlier than expected.

At the heart of the Tory “civil war,” as commentators call the dispute, is the crackdown on irregular migrants who come into the country in small boats across the English Channel. Sunak has promised to stop these arrivals. The new law is intended to act as a deterrent: It provides for irregularly immigrated asylum seekers to be deported to Rwanda regardless of their origin – with no possibility of return. To ensure that those affected cannot sue in British courts, invoking British human rights is expressly excluded.

Tory right wing rejects law as inadequate

But for the right wing of the Tory Party, the internationally controversial plan does not go far enough. Sunak’s draft envisages declaring Rwanda a safe third country – although the highest British court recently criticized constitutional deficits in the East African country. Hardliners like former Interior Minister Suella Braverman are calling for an exit from the European Convention on Human Rights so that those affected can no longer turn to international courts.

This in turn goes far too far for the moderate part of the group, also around 100 members strong. They fear for their reputation if Britain blatantly ignores international human rights and courts. If Sunak does comply with the demands of the right, the left of the party is likely to rebel. So the 43-year-old is stuck between the fronts. “His authority lies in the hands of two warring Tory tribes,” the Guardian newspaper recently commented. Even if the law passes as presented, the dispute will only be postponed and is likely to flare up again later, said expert Garnett from Lancaster University.

Migration as an important election campaign issue

For the Tories, migration has long been one of the most important issues in the upcoming election campaign. A new parliament must be elected by January 2025, and commentators expect a vote in autumn 2024 at the latest. In surveys, Sunak’s Conservatives are far behind the social democratic Labor Party. The Tories see tough action against irregular immigrants as an opportunity to keep their voters in line.

But instead of appearing united, the dispute over how is causing new chaos and mutual accusations. As with the Brexit debates under then-Prime Minister Theresa May, the far-right in faction groups such as the European Research Group (ERG) are using media attention to put pressure on Downing Street. A “Star Chamber” of right-wing conservative legal experts gave Sunak’s plans a thumbs-up in front of the cameras. By then it was obvious that the Prime Minister no longer had his political fate in his own hands.

Sunak remained inactive for a long time

According to observers, Sunak himself is to blame for the increasingly loud debate. He let the argument go on for days, relying on the so-called whips who are responsible for discipline in the group, as well as the charm of his foreign minister and predecessor, David Cameron.

But flattery – supposedly even lifetime mandates in the upper house were offered – and threats such as an early election had no effect. It was only on Monday that Sunak, who was caught up in an hour-long statement before the independent Corona Inquiry Commission, sent his Home Secretary James Cleverly into talks with potential rebels. On Tuesday morning, the Prime Minister wanted to meet personally with the right-wing New Conservatives group.

Only the vote in the evening will show whether it is enough. Exactly four years to the day after their brilliant election victory in 2019, the vote could hasten the end for the Conservatives. The first are already demanding that in this case the winner from back then should take over the party again. His name: Boris Johnson.