Can Trump’s march through the US Republican primary campaign be stopped? There’s not much to say for it. But the vote in small New Hampshire should not be underestimated.
At the end of the day, it’s all expectation management. “I want to be strong. We won’t know what strong means until the numbers come in,” says Nikki Haley a few days before the primary for the Republican presidential nomination in New Hampshire. Haley could win there against former US President Donald Trump. But you shouldn’t bet on it, it’s unlikely – Trump is clearly ahead in the polls here too. But the gap is significantly smaller than elsewhere – the 52-year-old has a real chance. The area code in the small state in New England on the east coast may be their only chance.
In the first primary election in strictly religious Iowa a week ago, Haley, who is considered somewhat more moderate, only came third. Her arch-conservative competitor Ron DeSantis came in second, a few percentage points ahead of Haley. Trump won in a landslide, winning by more than 30 percentage points. In national polls, his lead over Haley and DeSantis is even larger. The race seems to be over before it has even begun: Trump, the unstoppable favorite. And a duel for second place between DeSantis and Haley. This tide could turn in the vote in New Hampshire on Tuesday.
“If Trump wins in New Hampshire, he is the candidate. The game is over,” says Andrew Smith from the University of New Hampshire to the German Press Agency. There he heads the center for opinion polls and researches voter surveys. Only if Haley wins here will the Republican race not be over. “I think she will have a hard time winning, but she has a chance.” Trump is averaging 49 percent in polls, Haley is at 34.
A more moderate electorate
The state with its almost 1.4 million inhabitants is in principle not important for the primary election campaign, Smith points out. There are hardly any delegates to be won here for the party’s nomination convention. But what matters is what story is in the media after the vote in New Hampshire, says Smith. If Haley were to win here, there would be positive coverage and a lot of tailwind in the coming weeks. “And that’s priceless.”
The former US ambassador to the United Nations benefits from the more moderate electorate in New Hampshire – it is therefore by no means certain that her success will continue here in other states. This is one of the reasons why Ron DeSantis may have more or less written off New Hampshire. The 45-year-old is well behind in surveys there, in the single-digit range.
According to observers, the governor of Florida, who is restricting the rights of minorities in his state and restricting freedom of teaching in schools and universities, is focusing on the primary election in South Carolina at the end of February. His goal is to beat Haley in her home state, where she was once governor. A triumph over Haley would only mean second place for DeSantis. Trump is also far ahead in conservative South Carolina. “If Nikki loses New Hampshire – which is her best chance of any state to win – and then immediately loses her home state of South Carolina, she has to drop out and we get our two-man race,” NBC quoted a DeSantis confidant as saying -Campaign teams.
At the same time, Haley is betting on making her rival DeSantis look like a loser. She has declared the race in New Hampshire a duel between her and Trump. Strategically, she refused to take part in another TV debate without Trump – and only with DeSantis. Trump, of course, rejected this. The 77-year-old has not taken part in a single Republican TV debate.
Trump’s verbal attacks
While DeSantis was once his biggest competitor in the race for the candidacy, Trump is now increasingly focusing on Haley. DeSantis, who often seems uncharismatic and wooden, has collapsed in the polls in recent months, while Haley has fought her way up. The two are now roughly equal in national surveys – Haley averages slightly better at 12 percent, DeSantis at a good 11. Trump comes in at 65 percent.
His verbal attacks on the daughter of Indian immigrants show that he still sees a danger in Haley. As is often the case with Trump, they are racist in nature. For example, he spread the false claim that Haley could not become president because her parents were not US citizens when she was born. It almost seems cynical that Haley repeatedly emphasizes during the election campaign that the USA is not a racist country. She puts Trump’s racism into perspective: “That’s what he does when he feels unsafe. I don’t take these things personally, it doesn’t bother me.”
At the same time, Trump’s former ally is not clearly breaking away from him – which is likely to scare off some more moderate voters. She promised to pardon him if he were convicted if she became president. There are four criminal proceedings against the ex-president, including because of his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. At that time he lost to Democrat Joe Biden. “He was the right president at the right time,” she repeats like a mantra. The fact that neither DeSantis nor Haley is attacking Trump because of his behavior after the election is also because they don’t want to alienate his supporters. If Trump does drop out of the race, whether for health reasons or because of his legal problems, Haley and DeSantis will need this.
Observers assume that Haley could be aiming for the office of vice president. If Trump chooses her, it would be a smart move because he could attract more moderate Republicans to his side. But it is possible that Trump and his cult-like following would prefer to rely on someone more radical from their own camp who is loyal to Trump. And Ron DeSantis? He has now become something of an intimate enemy of Trump. If the tide doesn’t turn, he can only try to leave the pitch as second with his head held high. And should get ready – for the election year 2028.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
