On the road with Boris Pistorius: Is the next chancellor already traveling here?

It’s a big train station this morning in Kosovo’s capital Pristina – even for a federal minister. On his first trip to the Balkans, Boris Pistorius is welcomed at the first stop not only by his counterpart, but also by the Prime Minister and the President. He then stands with her in front of the German and Kosovar Albanian flags, talks about German-Kosovar relations and the future of the region.

One could almost think that a chancellor was appearing here and not a cabinet member.

There are various reasons for the unusually large contingent in terms of protocol: Germany traditionally has a high status here, and political celebrities from Berlin are always received with special honors. In addition, in Kosovo it is not the defense minister but the president who is the supreme commander.

Yet. The large train station fits into the image that is being painted of Pistorius these days: the chancellor of the reserve.

He has been leading the ranking of the most popular politicians in Germany for months and, according to a survey, is even the more desirable head of government than Olaf Scholz. A four-letter tabloid recently speculated: “Will there be a change in chancellor?”

Traps for the minister from Germany

For the defense minister, such a trip to the Balkans is not without pitfalls. One wrong sentence can be enough to start a conflagration. Serbia still does not recognize Kosovo, which has been independent since 2008, and is constantly provoking skirmishes. For a while, the neighbor did not allow cars with Kosovo license plates to cross the border. On September 24th last year, the violence escalated: a group of militant Serbs attacked police forces in northern Kosovo, leaving four people dead.

But the Kosovo side is also eagerly getting involved. The central bank has just banned the Serbian dinar, which is used by the Serb minority in northern Kosovo, as a means of payment. In particular, Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who has been in office since 2021, is accused of further fueling tensions and massively discriminating against the country’s minorities, especially the Serbian ones.

In the presidential palace in Pristina, Pistorius managed a mixture of a statement of solidarity and at the same time a warning to the government not to contribute to the escalation. He says this as a “friend” who doesn’t want to get involved, he emphasizes.

Pistorius is asked how he feels about Kosovo’s desire to become a NATO member. “I’m an impatient person myself,” Pistorius replies. That’s why he can understand Kosovo’s impatience. NATO membership is the goal. At the same time, we’re not ready yet. He calls on Kosovars to be “patient.” That sounds Solomonic.

Scholz was also in Kosovo, where he made a very similar statement: in June 2022, just for a few hours. The Chancellor had to move on quickly; five countries in two days were on his list. It was enough for a short conversation with Kurti and a quick visit to the Bundeswehr soldiers who are stationed here. Not more.

Pistorius spends a whole day in Pristina, visits the Bundeswehr in their “Film City” camp, sits with the soldiers on wooden benches in the evening with salad and grilled sausage, and patiently poses for selfies. The minister as a shirtless but approachable “man of the troops” is an image that Pistorius enjoys and successfully cultivates. Someone who is close to people and can think big ideas at the same time. Chancellor material. Only with more time than the real chancellor.

As defense minister, Pistorius is responsible for the German contingent of the NATO-led Kosovo Force (Kfor). It is intended to ensure that the permanent tensions between the Kosovars and the Serb minority living there do not escalate to the point where they trigger a conflagration. German soldiers have been involved in Kfor since 1999. It is the longest mandate of the Bundeswehr.

Boris Pistorius has not consistently denied rumors

In Berlin, one or two comrades are following very closely how Pistorius relates to the Chancellor speculation – even though they are nothing more than that: speculation, far from reality, practically not an issue in the party.

Really?

An example. After the turn of the year, Scholz gave an interview. The Chancellor struck a new tone and hinted at self-criticism. Anyone who wanted to could read from this: Things can’t go on like this. For Scholz, who always appears unwavering and unwavering, this is a quite remarkable event – and a signal to his party: I understand.

But anyone who listened to the SPD often heard sentences like: I still have to read the interview. Or: I read it because I somehow have to. Curiosity, relief, even enthusiasm? Rather not.

What Pistorius said – or rather: didn’t say – just one day after the Scholz interview was published was very carefully recorded and dissected. The Popularity Minister spoke to the “Bild” newspaper about the reserve chancellor rumors. And this, at least in the perception of many comrades, has not been consistently withdrawn.

Why? Only Pistorius himself knows that. Some comrades do not suspect any malicious intent and emphasize his loyal disposition. Others suggest that Pistorius may well enjoy this form of attention. Either way: The ailing Chancellor can hardly approve of the fact that his supposed reserve is keeping the rumors simmering.

However, moving Pistorius to the north is unlikely to be an option, at least not a profitable one. That would fuel speculation even more and could prove to be tactically unwise. The stumbling Social Democrats would publicly denounce and discredit the country’s currently most popular (SPD) politician. Given the lousy poll numbers – for the party and the chancellor – you can’t really allow that.

In the Balkans the rumor mill is far away

The Berlin rumor mill is far away in the Balkans. Even the handful of Bundestag members who accompany Pistorius hold back from making domestic political comments. This is not about traffic light trivialities, but about the question of whether a new war will break out in the Balkans. The wars of the past have cost thousands of lives in the region and left deep trauma to this day.

From Kosovo’s perspective, the German Defense Minister is an important guarantor of the country’s security. And he doesn’t disappoint hopes. Pistorius announces that he will strengthen the German KFOR contingent with another infantry company. From May onwards, around 250 soldiers will be stationed in Kosovo; currently there are around 90.

Strictly speaking, this is not news, it was already known last year, but the signal of support is well received by the Kosovar interlocutors. Just like Pistorius’ assurance to the Kosovo president that he would be “ready to do more” if people thought they could “play their own game here.”

This is an unusually clear warning to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, whom Pistorius will meet in Belgrade on Wednesday afternoon at the end of his trip. There he has to demonstrate special diplomatic tact. Vučić often appears soft in contours and gestures. In fact, he is a tough power-broker who has been blinking towards EU membership for years and then every now and then turns towards Russia. This is called “swing politics” in political science. You have to be well prepared so as not to be lulled by his garlands of words.

First scratches on the picture of the Mi(ni)ster Perfect

Other worries await Pistorius at home. He still leads all popularity polls. But recently there were first scratches on the image of the Mi(ni)ster Perfect. The “Spiegel” reported that the staff council of the Ministry of Defense vehemently defended itself in a letter against the minister’s rather tame reform in his own house.

Meanwhile, the troops, which are supposed to be “warworthy” (Pistorius) again, are running out of recruits. Despite the minister’s big announcement that he wanted to recruit more people to join the Bundeswehr, the number of applicants fell, according to “Spiegel”.

After Easter, Pistorius wants to tackle the reform of the armed forces. It’s about fundamental structures and staff reductions. Resistance is to be expected here too. The “man who could also be chancellor” could quickly become the “fall of a super minister” narrative.

Would Pistorius want to become chancellor?

But does Pistorius actually want to become chancellor? The 63-year-old from Lower Saxony would undoubtedly be confident in taking on the position; he doesn’t lack self-confidence. But he’s not a regicide. “For me, this is not a stepping stone to higher tasks,” . So you would have to call him. And that is unlikely.

Olaf Scholz is not someone who would voluntarily give up his place to someone else. And the SPD, despite all the complaining behind the scenes, is not a party to overthrow the chancellor. On the other hand, there are always surprises in politics. Most political observers did not believe it was possible that Olaf Scholz would become chancellor as the SPD’s top candidate despite initially disastrous poll numbers.

“Patience” is a term Pistorius uses frequently on his trip to the Balkans. To call on the actors in the region to remain calm. And at the same time not to deprive them of hope that their big goal, membership in the EU or NATO, will eventually work.

Patience could also be a good exercise for Pistorius. If he doesn’t want to completely lose sight of the next step.