What if Trump returns to the White House? The question is not on the official agenda for the Chancellor’s visit to Washington. But she will accompany him every step of the way.
It will be quite an arduous journey for Olaf Scholz on his third visit to Washington as Chancellor. The Bundeswehr’s only currently functional A350 “Air Force One” is currently traveling with the Federal President in Mongolia. On Thursday, Scholz will therefore switch to a significantly less comfortable and less powerful Airbus A321, which cannot make the 6,700 kilometer straight line across the Atlantic without a refueling stop in Reykjavik, Iceland.
In the end, the Chancellor’s flight time there and back will be almost as long as his stay there. Scholz has around 24 hours in the US capital. The highlight comes at the very end on Friday afternoon: one hour is scheduled for the one-on-one conversation with US President Joe Biden in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. Last time it ended up being about 80 minutes. It will primarily be about continued military support for Ukraine, the Middle East conflict, but also the NATO summit in Washington in the summer.
Trump scenario was moderated for a long time
One topic is not on the official agenda for the visit: What if Donald Trump returns to where Scholz meets Biden on Friday: to the White House? The question will still accompany Scholz every step of the way in Washington.
The Trump scenario was moderated by the federal government for a long time. Scholz never missed an opportunity to express his respect for Biden, who is something like his favorite head of state. He never left any doubts about the 81-year-old president’s fitness for a second term in office.
Fears focus on security aspects
By the time the primaries for the US presidential election began on November 5th, the mood in Berlin had changed. The polls that see Trump as the most likely challenger to Biden are increasing nervousness. The warnings of a new “turning point” in the event of a Republican election victory are now coming not only from the opposition, but also from the government camp. “Europe’s security would no longer be guaranteed from one day to the next. The future of free and independent Ukraine would be in great danger,” said the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael Roth, recently to the editorial network Germany (RND).
There are economic aspects that are of concern. Trump’s constant threat of punitive tariffs in his fight against Germany’s export surplus is still well remembered from his first term in office from 2017 to 2021. But the biggest fears are in the security area. Can Europe still ensure its own security if Trump suddenly withdraws US troops or American nuclear weapons from Europe or immediately calls NATO into question as a whole? And where will military support for Ukraine come from if Trump cuts off US supplies to the Ukrainian armed forces?
Scholz: “We are only a middle power”
Scholz is currently primarily concerned with the latter question. His first foreign policy act this year was an urgent appeal to EU partners to do more militarily for Ukraine. According to the Chancellery’s calculations, Germany is by far Ukraine’s second most important arms supplier after the USA and currently accounts for more than half of European contributions. Scholz is uncomfortable with the idea that Germany could find itself at the forefront of military aid if the USA withdraws. “It wouldn’t be good news if Germany were to end up being Ukraine’s biggest supporter if the USA were to stop supporting it,” he said in a recent interview with “Zeit”. “We are, as Helmut Schmidt said, only a middle power.”
Europe as a whole would also hardly be able to fully compensate for US aid. And the idea that the European NATO countries could ensure their own security overnight is unanimously viewed by experts as an illusion. Despite some increased military budgets in Europe as a result of the Ukraine war, the USA accounts for more than two thirds (68 percent) of the alliance’s military spending.
Germany has so far rejected Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron has been pushing for more European sovereignty in the security area for years – but so far this has met with little response in Germany. As early as 2020, the Frenchman offered the other Europeans talks about a European nuclear deterrent. France and Great Britain are the only NATO countries that have nuclear weapons alongside the USA.
The head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, believes that it is now high time to respond to the French offer for talks. The reason he cites is the doubts that Trump has sown about America’s reliability in the NATO alliance. “The British should also be included in these discussions,” demands Heusgen. Former Green Party Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer also called for Europe’s own nuclear deterrent at the end of last year.
Scholz rejects debate about European nuclear alliance
This debate clearly goes too far and gets on Scholz’s nerves. “I don’t know what this discussion is about today,” he told “Zeit”. He believes it is important to maintain transatlantic cooperation. “That’s why my government has decided to continue nuclear sharing with the USA and NATO. I think that’s the more realistic path.” But what if Trump withdraws unilaterally and withdraws US nuclear weapons from Germany and other European countries?
In any case, the population is not particularly confident that the federal government is adequately preparing for a new Trump era. In a current survey by the opinion research institute YouGov on behalf of the German Press Agency, 52 percent say that this is not the case. Only 10 percent believe the government’s preparations for Trump’s return to the White House are sufficient. 15 percent believe that no preparations need to be made at all. 23 percent did not provide any information.
Meeting with Trump was not even considered
During his visit to Washington, Scholz will try to get his own idea of what makes the Trump camp tick. Representatives of Trump’s Republican Party are also invited to a dinner with members of Congress immediately after his arrival on Thursday evening. However, a meeting with Trump himself was not even considered. “Mr Trump has no official office at the moment. In this respect, the formal hook would also be missing,” it is said in government circles.
Next week there will be another good opportunity for Scholz and his ministers to get in touch with the Republicans. Conference leader Heusgen expects around 70 members of the US Congress to attend the Munich Security Conference. “We are very careful to ensure that this is as evenly distributed as possible between Democrats and Republicans,” he says. “You can then have a conversation about it: What will America look like in a year?”
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
