Donald Trump: After this criminal trial, a pardon is out of the question

For the first time in the history of the United States of America, a former president is indicted: Donald J. Trump, 77 years old, US President from 2017-2021. The criminal trial begins on March 25 in New York, the city that once made the real estate king great or – he would probably say – that he made great.

That has been clear since yesterday. One thing is also certain: the judge, Juan Merchan, is assertive, as he demonstrated from the beginning of the hearing. He won’t let Trump fool him. He harshly rejects the histrionics of his lawyers. He does not stop the proceedings.

For six weeks, the profile-addicted Trump will have to sit silently in the dock in a plain courtroom in Lower Manhattan. So far, his participation in the two civil lawsuits against him in New York has been voluntary and he has used it for all sorts of shows and for election campaign purposes. But now he no longer has a choice. He has to be in the courtroom on time, day after day, several hours a day. Listen while others talk. Follow the judge’s instructions. No shows. No election campaign appearances in the country. The maximum punishment for a self-promoter like him.

Trump cannot pardon himself

The case is irrelevant for the nomination of the Republican presidential candidate. Although only half of the primaries will be completed at the end of March, Trump can hardly take victory away from him, he is too much the ruler of the obedient party. Nor will the trial change Republican opinion. Most followers blindly follow their leader, who always claims that he is the victim of a political witch hunt by President Biden.

And yet the case could represent a turning point of sorts. For six weeks, Americans will hear the words: sex scandal. Hush money. Porn actress. Falsifying business accounts. Trump is accused of paying porn star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in hush money shortly before the 2016 election to keep the extramarital affair scandal public. He is charged with 34 counts in the case. Among other things, he is said to have falsified business documents to cover up the scandal.

In addition to some weaknesses, the New York case has one major advantage. Because no federal court will rule, Trump will not be able to pardon himself or order his attorney general to drop the case even if he wins the election in November.

This hardly affects the Republicans, but the centrist voters, the independents, even more so. There are also people among them who consider Trump’s crimes to be comparatively minor, but most people consider hush money paid by a married man to a porn star to be quite unsavory. Or even worse: a conviction in the process. It would make Trump the real estate shark, reality TV star and US President Trump the criminal.

Donald Trump’s election campaign is taking place in the courtroom

The fact that the criminal trial in New York is the first of the four criminal trials is regrettable in the opinion of many lawyers. It is in fact the weakest case, also from a legal perspective, and an acquittal would give Trump a significant boost. Much more important is the case in Washington over attempted election manipulation – the would-be autocrat’s main crime. But that trial, which was scheduled to begin on March 4, must be postponed because the Supreme Court must first decide whether Trump enjoys complete immunity, as he claims. The likelihood that he will be right is slim, but he has once again gained time.

If the US Supreme Court decides quickly, the trial in Washington could immediately follow the one in New York, later in May or early summer. Then things would get really tough for the man who wants to be crowned at the Republican nomination convention in July. He actually spends a large part of his campaign in the courtroom.

The fact that Trump received good news yesterday was not due to him, but rather due to the dubious personal behavior of his favorite legal opponent, Fani Willis, the prosecutor of Fulton County in Georgia. In August, she filed charges against Trump and 18 other alleged accomplices in the second most important of the four criminal trials. The case revolves around the formation of a criminal conspiracy to falsify the election results in Georgia. It is scheduled to begin in August 2024.

An affair as a gift for Trump

Willis himself had to testify under oath yesterday. She had engaged in an affair with Nathan Wade, a married lawyer whom she hired for a lot of money as a special prosecutor in the Trump case. A judge must now decide whether she will be dismissed from the case because of personal gain. Even as it is, it is a public relations disaster for the prosecution – and a gift for Trump, who constantly insinuates that the justice system is corrupt and politically infiltrated.

The trial against Trump in Georgia had little chance of actually being heard this year. The legal calendar is too full. That doesn’t make it any less important because it involves the legal processing of the darkest chapter in US electoral history. The prosecutor’s embarrassing misstep could now prevent this entire investigation – and hurt the Democrats in the all-important swing state.

Trump celebrated the Willis and Wade hearings in Georgia as a great success, and yet these days in mid-February are, overall, a disaster for him. The legal decision on the future of his company – the Trump Organization – is due on Friday, and its license may be revoked due to all sorts of manipulation and fraud. There is also a fine of $370 million.

And Trump will also slowly become aware that a conviction in a criminal case could cost him his election victory in November. Although he is unlikely to go to prison – the maximum sentence in the case of hush money is four years. But America letting a criminally convicted gangster move into the White House is probably one twist too many.