Ursula von der Leyen in the race: The woman against Trump

Ursula von der Leyen in the race: The woman against Trump

The CDU unanimously nominates “dear Ursula” as the top candidate for the European elections. The truth is: Von der Leyen has a complicated relationship with her party.

The welcome to the press conference will also be available in English this Monday afternoon. It was a “special press conference” at the CDU party headquarters, as the press spokeswoman explained to the foreign journalists who had come specially for the event. The reason for this, of course, is a special guest who has not visited the party’s committees for a long time.

Ursula von der Leyen, 65, came to Berlin to be nominated. And the CDU federal executive committee did her this favor. The Christian Democrats unanimously propose the President of the EU Commission as the top candidate for the European elections in June. This comes as little surprise – and yet it was long overdue.

Merz praises “dear Ursula” for her work during the pandemic, her economic programs against the recession and her commitment to Ukraine. Security and prosperity are the most important challenges for Europe, he says. “This is the only way we can ensure the transformation towards a climate-neutral economy.”

Von der Leyen returns the warm words and kindly thanks Merz for his “constant support and excellent cooperation.” She makes “a very conscious and well-considered decision.” Von der Leyen looks back on von der Leyen’s first term in office full of praise. “We accomplished more than we could ever imagine.”

Merz and von der Leyen appear harmoniously at the press conference. But how good is the relationship between the CDU and the Commission President really? And what has von der Leyen achieved in Brussels so far? Here are the most important questions and answers.

Why is Ursula von der Leyen only now explaining herself?

Von der Leyen kept a low profile until the end. Everyone expected her to run for office, but she had not made a public statement about it – until today. The competition in Germany is completely different: the SPD, Greens and FDP chose their top candidates weeks ago. At the European level, too, everything has long been clear for many other party families. The Social Democrats are sending forward an EU Commissioner from Luxembourg whose name is unlikely to be worth remembering. The Greens are again relying on a team of experienced European politicians from different countries.

And the European People’s Party (EPP), to which the CDU and CSU belong? She wants to nominate her top candidate at a party conference in early March. The internal deadline to apply for the EPP candidacy expires on Wednesday. So von der Leyen didn’t have to stress. The official reason for their reluctance is their official duties. There is still so much to do before the election, as has been heard again and again from those around her. The change of role from president to top candidate should therefore take place as late as possible.

Another office in Brussels should not be forgotten in this context. Von der Leyen had also repeatedly been touted as the next NATO Secretary General. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is said to have prevented this, as “Welt am Sonntag” reported. One may argue about which of the two posts is more influential. In any case, Von der Leyen took the opportunity to sharpen her security policy profile at the Munich Security Conference at the weekend. If she remained commission president, she said, she would appoint a defense commissioner.

This could also be understood as an official application. By the way, von der Leyen is not the last person to declare her candidacy in a European comparison. The Liberals have not yet decided how they will position themselves.

What has Ursula von der Leyen achieved in the past five years?

There is this sentence that the recently deceased former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger is said to have said. “Who do I call if I want to call Europe?”. A good question, even in 2024. “Well, me of course,” Ursula von der Leyen would probably answer. Her first term in office was characterized by this claim to leadership. In 2020, she flew by helicopter along the Greek land border with Turkey as more and more refugees tried to get into the EU. It was a clear signal: This is also my external border.

Von der Leyen has made the EU Commission the key coordination body in crisis situations on several occasions. Among other things, it has ordered vaccines against Corona for the member states and presented a plan for ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. The results were and are – for example in these two examples – not only convincing. But the CDU politician has set precedents for European cooperation that future commissions can hardly fall behind.

Right at the beginning of her term in office, von der Leyen presented her roadmap with the “Green Deal” for how Europe should succeed in meeting the Paris climate goals. This was followed by a whole package of laws that were passed at the European level – but have often not yet been implemented at the national level. The “Green Deal” is linked to von der Leyen like no other project. Will it be a successful project? That is not yet clear. For this reason alone, von der Leyen may have decided that he wants to direct the EU Commission for another five years.

What does the Union think of your top woman for Europe?

It may be worth remembering again: it was not the CDU that got Ursula von der Leyen the job in Brussels. It wasn’t even Angela Merkel. No, it was Emmanuel Macron who unexpectedly came up with the idea of ​​proposing the then German Defense Minister as EU Commission President five years ago. The French President appreciates von der Leyen. That was the case back then; as far as we know, little has changed. But Macron’s maneuver back then served one main purpose: to prevent Manfred Weber.

Weber? Yes, that’s right, Manfred Weber, CSU politician from Lower Bavaria, was the EPP’s top candidate in 2019. And because these top candidates were actually invented in order to make the European elections more directly democratic in public perception, Weber was supposed to become Commission President after the election. After all, the EPP won the election with him. Macron, however, thought that was a less good idea – and von der Leyen was allowed to move to her hometown of Brussels, where her father Ernst Albrecht had once worked for the EU’s predecessor organization.

In the CSU, people may still remember this episode with resentment. In the CDU, however, von der Leyen’s policies of the past few years play a more decisive role in your assessment. And to put it briefly, it is a mixed bag at best. Many party members particularly resent the Green Deal: too much plan, too little market, and all in all just more bureaucracy. The fact that von der Leyen is now constantly talking about Europe’s competitiveness is not only due to economic reality, but also to the needs of the German Christian Democracy. When it comes to migration issues, she has long demonstrated a balance of humanity and toughness that suits Friedrich Merz’s CDU.

The CDU supports her candidacy with “great sympathy and a lot of support,” said Merz on Monday afternoon. And yet: All in all, it is the same as when Federal Minister von der Leyen modernized the Union’s family policy. The party doesn’t love her. But she knows she can’t do without them. Von der Leyen remains the inevitable.

What are von der Leyen’s chances of another term in office?

If the EPP wins the election with von der Leyen, she will become Commission President again. Quite simply, a small lead is enough, you can assume that. As was the case five years ago, the heads of state and government will decide on this. The procedure has not changed. But unlike back then, the CDU politician’s second term in office can now also be justified by the desire for more direct democratic perception. She ultimately runs as the top candidate.

The heads of state and government are unlikely to allow a day-long deadlock over the future head of the Commission this summer. The geopolitical challenges are too great. And it is all too likely that Donald Trump will have a second term as US President. In order to meet him on an equal footing, the EU needs an experienced politician at the head of the Commission, not a newcomer. In this respect, too, another term in office for von der Leyen is inevitable – and therefore certain.

Source: Stern

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