Climate: Habeck: Germany on track for its 2030 climate target

According to Federal Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck, the German climate protection target for 2030 can be achieved. “If we stay on course, we will achieve our 2030 climate goals,” said the Green politician in a statement published in Berlin on Friday, referring to new data from the Federal Environment Agency. By then, according to the Climate Protection Act, German greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by 65 percent compared to 1990.

Some would combine climate protection efforts with a “narrative of the country’s decline,” said Habeck, taking a swipe at the AfD. “Today we show that this is wrong, that climate protection can be successful, that the political efforts are worthwhile and have been worthwhile.” Dirk Messner, the president of the Federal Environment Agency, which carried out the calculations, spoke of a strong perspective, but emphasized: “Now we have to keep working hard.” Environmental groups also warned against sitting back.

In its new projection report, the Federal Environment Agency assumes a reduction of almost 64 percent. According to the ministry, the goal is now tangible. Last year a reduction of only 63 percent was expected, and the year before that it was only expected to be reduced by 49 percent.

“Climate protection gap” closed in projection

The real improvement, however, is in the expected annual greenhouse gas emissions up to 2030. There are also target values ​​for this in the Federal Climate Protection Act. According to previous calculations, a total of 1,100 million tons of CO2 equivalents were exceeded. This size is used to make different greenhouse gases comparable. The Federal Environment Agency now expects Germany to consume a total of 47 million tons less CO2 by 2030 than required by law. “It was more than unclear at the beginning of this government whether we would manage to get on target,” explained Habeck. “And now we can close the gap if we continue to work hard to implement the necessary measures.” The climate policy spokesman for the FDP parliamentary group, Olaf in der Beek, sees the traffic light as “politically on track”.

Why the new calculation is better

The Climate Protection Ministry justifies the more positive outlook with progress in climate protection and the expansion of renewable energies. Messner said that the measures to expand renewable energies make it increasingly likely that Germany will achieve its goal of covering a total of 80 percent of its electricity consumption from wind and solar in 2030. In addition, coal is being increasingly replaced by gas, which is less harmful to the climate – last year people were even more skeptical after the “price explosion” as a result of the Russian war.

The crux of the matter: some outdated assumptions

However, the calculations are based on some assumptions that are now outdated. So only data up to October could be taken into account, as Messner said. The cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), which is important for climate protection, which were later agreed by the traffic light coalition under austerity pressure, have not yet been taken into account. This was also pointed out by the chairman of the CDU/CSU in the Committee for Climate Protection and Energy, Thomas Gebhart (CDU), who called the projection data “unrealistic”. Habeck said about the cuts in the KTF that these primarily affected other areas such as railways and construction.

However, the calculations are partly based on assumptions about the future that are less favorable – at least for climate protection. The experts were still expecting economic growth of 1.4 percent for the current year. The federal government now only assumes 0.2 percent.

The controversial heating law and its effect

In Messner’s opinion, the heating law, which was passed after a long and controversial discussion, will not fail to have a climate protection effect. Not only were significantly more heat pumps sold, but also more oil and gas heating systems. But the signal has been set, especially since the rising CO2 price will make heating with fossil fuels increasingly more expensive. “And so I’m pretty sure that in the coming years the number of gas systems and oil systems sold will decline, and heat pumps will increase.”

Habeck: Good climate balance in 2023 is no reason to be proud

“We achieved a total reduction of 10.1% in greenhouse gas emissions in 2023,” said Messner. According to calculations, Germany emitted 674 million tons of CO2 equivalents last year. The data is preliminary. In the next step, they will now be examined by the Advisory Council on Climate Issues. Final figures for 2023 will not be available until next year.

The good climate balance of the previous year is due to the weakening economy. “We did not have sufficient growth in 23 due to high energy prices and the energy crisis,” said Habeck. “So it’s not something to be really proud of.” In the energy industry in particular, significantly fewer greenhouse gases were produced than in previous years.

The Federal Environment Agency attributes this to a lower use of fossil fuels such as lignite, hard coal and natural gas. In addition, renewable energies were further expanded and less energy was consumed. Higher consumer prices and a mild winter also played a role.

However, despite progress, the areas of transport and construction continued to lag behind. Green party leader Katharina Dröge called for “urgent further climate protection measures”. The Climate Alliance Germany accused Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP) of “denial politics”. Construction Minister Klara Geywitz (SPD) pointed out that the data for 2023 is still preliminary, but also shows that the direction is correct and that the energy transition in the building sector has “clearly picked up speed”.

However, Viviane Raddatz from WWF Germany found that the joy about the significant reduction in emissions and effective climate measures quickly gets stuck in the throat. “Because a look at the causes reveals that political and economic crises are reflected here, instead of the will for transformation and structural climate protection measures in all sectors.”

Federal Climate Protection Act Federal Environment Agency on the projection report from 2023 Current communication from the Federal Climate Protection Ministry Current communication from the Federal Environment Agency with more detailed data