Musk predicts Kiev’s defeat and is grilled as “Kremlin Elon”.

There is no individual who has helped Ukraine more than Elon Musk. Kiev’s armed forces used its Starlink system without paying; Musk bore the costs for a long time – then the Pentagon stepped in. He is not thanked by the pro-Ukraine faction. On the contrary, he was repeatedly attacked. If Ukrainian drones cannot use Starlink over Russian-occupied territory, this will be considered treason. If Russians use illegally imported systems near the front, even more so. Musk became a non-person because he was always skeptical about free Ukraine’s chances of victory.

So now again in a tweet. Musk responded to an argument about whether urban warfare expert John Spencer’s predictions were helpful or whether he was mostly wrong. Musk doesn’t directly address Spencer, but he does reveal his assessment of the war situation.

Elon Musk on the 2023 summer offensive

“It was a tragic waste of life for them Ukraine, to attack a larger army that had deep defenses, minefields and more powerful artillery, while Ukraine lacked tanks or air superiority! Any idiot could have predicted that.”

A harsh choice of words, because there is no shortage of experts who have made “idiots” of themselves. The situation in 2023 was as Musk describes it, but in the West in spring 2023 most experts predicted a brilliant victory – including a breakthrough to the sea and a victory celebration in Crimea.

The opposite has happened, but recalling the incorrect forecasts is considered inappropriate. “Layman” Musk, on the other hand, already recommended a deep and elastic defense back then. Kiev wants to build this strategy now, just under much more difficult conditions than in May 2023.

Musk believes the fall of Odessa is possible

Because of the resistance among the Ukrainian population, Musk sees “no chance” of Putin occupying the entire Ukraine. But: “The longer the war lasts, the more territory Russia will gain until it reaches the Dnieper, which is difficult to overcome.” And if the war doesn’t end, Odessa will fall too, according to his gloomy prognosis. This war is all about how bad the peace Kiev can achieve will be. “Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my opinion, the real question that remains.” Without access to the sea, all that would remain of free Ukraine would be an amputated, unviable rump state. “I recommend a negotiated solution before it comes to this.”

For this post, Musk is showered with criticism and hate speech. In fact, the Russians’ gains in space over the last few months have been manageable. Macer Gifford, a well-known Brit who fights on the Ukrainian side, writes: “If you knew how deeply ignorant this tweet is, you would be too embarrassed to publish it…”

What’s true about Elon Musk’s forecast?

About the content: Musk’s cautious opinion on the possibilities of the summer offensive was a minority position in the summer of 2023. But many defense experts have now changed their mind. The fall of Kiev was already painted on the wall in the absolutely pro-Ukrainian “Telegraph”. Today, Musk tends to articulate the majority opinion, albeit in his robust style.

In fact, the outlook that Musk suggests is very bleak. What can be read between the lines is that, in his opinion, “freezing” the conflict is not an option. Freezing would mean a ceasefire along the current line of the front, which would offer Kiev a breathing space and the West the chance to make up for any shortfalls in arms production. As long as the momentum is with the Russians, this is actually rather unlikely.

In Musk’s view, Kiev’s only option is to cede territories in the east. And the further the Russians advance, the larger the slice that Putin will carve out of Ukraine will be.

Such forecasts are not certain. Musk’s tweet assumes that Kiev’s support from the West will remain roughly as it is now. So that every now and then a handful of “miracle weapons” such as the F-16 are delivered, but the actual needs of the Ukrainian armed forces cannot be met. This is not necessary: ​​If the Western economy were to undertake a war effort like the USA did in World War II and the population accepted corresponding sacrifices, the tide would turn in Kiev’s favor, but it doesn’t look like that at the moment – especially not in the USA. Regardless of Trump’s bluster, the US has identified China as its main adversary, so its commitment to Ukraine must be such that it does not endanger more important US interests such as Israel or Taiwan.