Iran threatens Israel – how powerful is the mullahs’ military?

Once again, arch-enemies Israel and Iran are on the verge of escalation. Since seven Revolutionary Guards – including two generals – were killed on April 1 in a suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria’s capital Damascus, Jerusalem has remained silent.

Meanwhile, the big threats have begun in Tehran. This is a “cowardly crime” and “will not go unanswered,” said President Ibrahim Raisi. “The evil regime will be punished by our brave men,” added Head of State and Commander-in-Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The words of Foreign Office spokesman Nasser Kanani sounded even more threatening because they were more concrete: “The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves the right to take countermeasures and decides on the type of reaction.”

Thousands of lives could depend on this response. Because once this fire was ignited, no one would be able to put it out as quickly as it would spread to the entire region – and possibly far beyond.

The question is: super power or pseudo power? What is Iran actually capable of militarily?

Fire and deny

Iran is currently ranked 14th among the most powerful conventional military powers – three places ahead of Israel (and five ahead of Germany). In total, the Iranian armed forces are made up of around 610,000 active soldiers and 350,000 reservists. There are also around 2,000 tanks, more than 700 rocket launchers and around 600 howitzers.

However, the armed guardians of the Islamic Republic are world-famous. The Revolutionary Guard was created shortly after the eponymous Islamic Revolution in 1979. It was intended to form a counterpoint to the regular armed forces and protect the clerical system. Today, the 125,000 Revolutionary Guards form an army within the army – with their own ground, sea and air forces. The elite forces report directly to the supreme religious leader Ali Khamenei. Service in the Guard is also considered a mandatory stepping stone for a political career. Almost all cabinet members are former guard officers.

In addition, there are hundreds of thousands, probably even millions, of so-called Basijis, militia members who serve the regime in peacetime domestically by enforcing Islamic laws, violently suppressing protests and exposing dissidents.

Meanwhile, the al-Kuds are the mullahs’ foreign policy baton. The Brigadists serve as spies, supplying allies and training anti-Israel organizations throughout the Middle East. The Yemeni Houthis, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, Hamas in Gaza and, above all, the Lebanese Hezbollah all cook according to their recipe. In fact, Tehran has become a master of taunts. With covert operations or the financing of terrorist groups organized from the penumbra, the regime repeatedly tests the strength of Israeli and therefore also American patience. Let it be fired, be able to deny it, that’s the motto.

Rust in the air

From the mullah’s point of view, however, it is not quantity but quality that is the problem. In contrast to the state-of-the-art US-backed Israeli army, Iran has to rely on outdated technology in many cases.

There is a need to catch up, particularly in the air. According to Global Firepower, as of now, just 121 fighter jets could take off. With 193 operational aircraft, Israel not only has numerical but also, above all, technological air superiority. After all, many of the Iranian machines are completely outdated, writes even the government-affiliated . That would make it “very difficult for Iran to make lasting progress with a ground invasion,” writes US military expert Kris Osborn in an article for the online specialist magazine “Warrior Maven”.

The Islamic Republic is therefore trying to compensate for the weakness in other ways. Iranian drones are not only effective, but above all cheap to produce, which makes them sought after by their ally Russia. The precision of the latest generation of Iranian rockets and cruise missiles was most recently demonstrated in mid-January, when Iran attacked, among other things, an alleged Israeli “spy headquarters” near the US consulate in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil (the star reported). According to the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, Iran has the “largest and most diverse” missile arsenal in the Middle East; according to the US military, there are 3,000 ballistic missiles alone. Many types of them could easily carry nuclear warheads.

30 percent separate Iran from nuclear power

Now all the firing in the subjunctive is completely meaningless as soon as the bad word with A is used. So far, the United States has done well to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapons program. Under US President Donald Trump, who was not very keen on compromise but was more interested in legacies, the leading Western power withdrew from the nuclear agreement. Since then, concerns about Iran’s possible nuclear armament have brought diplomats from all over the world to sweat.

Just late last year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had accelerated production of 60 percent enriched uranium. From there it is not far to reach the 90 percent required for nuclear weapons. When it comes to nuclear deterrence, Iran is already playing its part. Concern is growing that Tehran could take advantage of the situation in Gaza to go the proverbial last few meters and thus force the West to lift the massive sanctions.

“Iran’s current defense strategy, also known as the ‘Forward Defense Strategy’, is based on three pillars: an advanced nuclear program, ballistic missiles and proxy forces,” the US think tank summarizes Stimson Center.

Gray area as an oasis of well-being

As much as Iran likes to sharpen its knives in public, so far Tehran has focused primarily on its role as a terrorist sponsor, be it as a patron of Hamas (the… star reported) or the Houthi rebels. As Michael Eisenstadt writes for the British think tank Chatham House, “the Islamic Republic has largely relied on activities in the ‘grey zone’ between war and peace.”

But if ammunition, men and hate are equally available, what’s the problem? The fear of conventional combat stems from the traumatic experiences of the war with Iraq, said Eisenstadt. Since then, Iran has become much more cautious in the power poker game, “although risk aversion is not the same as risk avoidance.” A few years ago, Ghassem Soleimani, then commander of the Quds Force, claimed that “Israel could be blown up in a single operation.” But in reality, the mullahs know that tipping the delicate balance in the region would probably not work in their favor. The wildfire would be difficult to control.

Nevertheless, Iran is becoming bolder – be it out of hurt pride or to distract from problems on its own doorstep. So far, the regime has had good reasons to avoid the last, decisive bit of escalation. Iran will one day step out of the “grey zone and act openly if circumstances allow it or if it deems it necessary,” says Eisenstadt. Has this moment come?

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