Iran’s threat of retaliation to Israel appears to be only a matter of time. Can the escalation of violence trigger a regional war? The events at a glance.
In view of a possible Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel approaching, the Foreign Office in Berlin has asked all German nationals in Iran to leave the country. At the same time, it warned against traveling to Iran. “The current tensions in the region, particularly between Israel and Iran, pose the risk of a sudden escalation,” the Foreign Office said on Friday evening. Accordingly, the security situation can deteriorate quickly and without warning. “It cannot be ruled out that air, land and sea transport routes could also be affected by an escalation, with corresponding possible impairments of travel to and from Iran,” it said. Austria also called on its compatriots to leave the country. Several countries, including Great Britain and France, had previously issued travel warnings.
US President Joe Biden said on Friday that he expected an attack to occur “sooner rather than later”. But he did not want to comment on intelligence information. He also warned Iran. When asked by a journalist in Washington what his message was to Tehran, Biden said: “Leave it.” According to a media report, the leadership in Tehran warned Washington not to interfere in the confrontation between Israel and Iran. There is growing concern that the escalation could escalate into a regional conflagration.
The USA is now increasing its military presence in the region. “We are moving additional resources to the region to strengthen regional deterrence efforts and increase troop protection for US forces,” a US defense official told the German Press Agency on Friday in Washington.
On April 1, two brigadier generals and five other members of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) were killed in a suspected Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy compound in the Syrian capital Damascus. Since then, the Iranian leadership has repeatedly threatened retaliation. Israel must be punished, Iran’s head of state Ayatollah Ali Khamenei confirmed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Germany’s Lufthansa extended the suspension of scheduled flights to and from the Iranian capital Tehran until Thursday.
Israel and USA: shoulder and shoulder
Against the backdrop of the Iranian threat, Israel and the USA are moving closer together. The commander in chief of the US Regional Command Centcom, General Michael Erik Kurilla, arrived in Israel on Thursday for a visit. “Our enemies believe they can divide Israel and the United States,” Israel’s Defense Minister Joav Galant said on Friday after a meeting with Kurilla. “But the opposite is true,” he said. “They bring us closer and strengthen our bonds. We stand shoulder to shoulder.” US President Biden had already promised Israel the “iron support” of the USA on Thursday if Iran carried out its threats of attack. “We are committed to the defense of Israel,” he said on Friday. “We will help defend Israel, and Iran will not succeed.”
Biden’s relationship with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently been severely strained. The US president took exception to Netanyahu’s refusal to change his policy on the Gaza war. From the US perspective, the Israeli leadership is not doing enough to provide sufficient humanitarian aid to the suffering Palestinian civilian population in the Gaza Strip. Washington also criticizes the fact that Netanyahu shows no willingness to present a coherent concept for the administration of the Gaza Strip – preferably supported by Palestinians – after the end of the Gaza war.
Tehran is also threatening the USA
The leadership in Tehran sees potential for additional escalation in Washington’s commitment to Israel. “Iran sent a message to the Biden administration through several Arab countries earlier this week,” the usually well-informed Israeli journalist Barak Ravid wrote on the news site axios.com on Friday evening, citing three US officials. The message was: “If the US intervenes in the confrontation between Israel and Iran, then US forces in the region will become the target of attacks.”
The USA maintains bases in Syria, Iraq and Jordan, among others, which were set up in the fight against the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS). After the Gaza war began on October 7, militias from Syria and Iraq allied with Iran repeatedly attacked these bases. However, Iran itself never appeared. Larger US military bases have been located in the Gulf states of Bahrain and Qatar for many years. Bahrain’s capital Manama is the home port of the US 5th Fleet.
Israel’s army: “Equipped at any time and for any scenario”
Israel is confident about the prospect of an Iranian attack. “The Israeli armed forces are well prepared, both in terms of their offensive and defensive capabilities,” military chief Herzi Halevi said on Friday after a general staff briefing. The army is constantly monitoring events in Iran and other locations and is preparing, in coordination with the US, to “address existing and potential threats.” “Our armed forces are prepared at any time and for any scenario,” emphasized Halevi.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) expressed concern about a possible imminent retaliatory attack by Iran on Israel. The situation is being taken “very seriously,” said Scholz on Friday in Berlin. Both he and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) did everything they could to make it clear to Iran “that there should not be (…) any military activity here.”
Top Iranian military officer killed in attack at embassy compound in Syria
Israel’s confrontation with Iran is an indirect consequence of the Gaza war. The Iran-allied Shiite militia Hezbollah has been attacking northern Israel from Lebanon since the beginning of the war. The attack on the Iranian embassy compound in the Syrian capital Damascus on April 1, attributed to Israel, killed Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Sahedi, a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), and other senior Iranian military officials. Sahedi was responsible for operations in Syria and Lebanon as commander of the IRGC’s foreign unit, according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency.
The Gaza war was triggered by the unprecedented massacre with more than 1,200 deaths that terrorists from Hamas and other groups carried out in Israel on October 7th last year. Israel responded with massive air strikes and a ground offensive. In view of the high number of civilian casualties and the catastrophic situation in the Gaza Strip, Israel is increasingly criticized internationally.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
